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More Than a Gas Station

Casey’s is using fuel to drive traffic and higher-margin food to drive one of the best trends in the market.

Casey’s General Stores $CASY is a convenience store chain based in Ankeny, Iowa, that offers fuel, pizza, snacks, coffee, energy drinks, groceries, and more.

They essentially provide everything you could need on your way home from work, before school, or from a ballgame.

It's not an AI stock or a biotech with a miracle drug.

And yet, few stocks in the S&P 500 have acted better over the past few years.

Since 2022, Casey’s has rallied more than 400%, with almost comically shallow drawdowns for a stock that has gone up this much. 

It just keeps grinding higher, quarter after quarter, year after year, like one of the cleanest consumer compounders in the market.

On Wednesday, that trend accelerated significantly.

Casey’s was the only S&P 500 earnings reaction of the session, and it was a monster. 

The company reported a big double beat, rallied more than 20%, and closed at a fresh all-time high, delivering the stock’s best earnings reaction since 2009.

Wednesday's move also erased what had been a multi-week corrective wave heading into the report.

That's exactly how strong primary uptrends behave... The bulls gobble up every dip like cornmeal. 

The earnings scorecard makes the reaction even more impressive. 

Casey’s reported $4.57 billion in revenue versus estimates of $4.34 billion, while earnings per share came in at $4.37 versus estimates of $3.32. 

Revenue growth accelerated to 14.5% YoY, and diluted EPS growth surged by more than 66% YoY, marking the strongest earnings growth in years.

And earnings sentiment is just as strong.

Wednesday’s 20.3% rally produced a reaction score of 11.81, one of the highest readings we've seen from any S&P 500 stock this earnings season. 

Casey’s has now been rewarded for five of its last six earnings reports, and this latest reaction confirms that investors are still willing to pay up for the story.

Inside the store, total sales grew more than 10% for the year, while inside same-store sales rose 4.2%, driven by strength in whole pizzas, appetizers, sides, non-alcoholic beverages, and the broader prepared food platform.

That inside-the-store engine is the magic of this business.

Casey’s isn't just selling gas... They're using fuel to drive traffic into their stores, then monetizing that traffic through higher-margin food, beverages, groceries, and private-label convenience. 

The company’s inside margin expanded to 42.2% for the year, while fuel gross profit rose 21%, total fuel gallons sold increased 10%, and the company averaged a fuel margin of 42.6 cents per gallon.

That balance between gallons, margins, and in-store traffic is why Casey’s model keeps working across different economic environments.

And while the company is absolutely crushing it right now, the management team isn't slowing down. 

Casey’s has added 80 stores over the past year, grown its rewards program to nearly 10.5 million members, raised its dividend for the 27th consecutive year, and expects to open at least 120 stores in the next year through a mix of M&A and new construction.

That's a lot of momentum for a company most investors still think of as a boring convenience store chain.

But the stock has never looked boring...

Casey’s is in a very primary uptrend, printing new all-time highs, and now accelerating after its strongest earnings reaction in 17 years. 

The trend is higher, the fundamentals are improving, and earnings sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish. Until that changes, Casey’s remains one of our favorite names in the S&P 500.

In the free Daily Beat, we cover the biggest S&P 500 earnings reactions and show you what the market is rewarding or rejecting in real time. 

But in the Premium Beat Report, we go a step further and put on real trades in the names we have the most conviction in.

Sometimes those opportunities come from household S&P 500 names like Casey’s.

Other times, we trade smaller names with more upside potential.

When the next trade triggers, Premium Beat Report members will hear about it first.

Join the Premium Beat Report to get our next trade.

Happy fishing,

-The Beat Team 


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