These last six months in the crypto market have reflected the utility of patience in trading. Because we view trading through a financial lens, we always assume that risk management is preventing financial loses. And as such, we integrate strategies to mitigate against such losses.
These include stop losses, invalidations, and hedging strategies.
And while these are imperative in preventing losses from spiraling out of control, there is another aspect that gets commonly overlooked.
And that is psychological risk management.
Just like our portfolio value, we need to maintain a healthy balance within our inner emotional and psychological wellbeing. When we have a prolonged stretch of losing money in the markets, it negatively weighs on our mind. As such, this can create a negative feedback loop whereby we make decisions without awareness of the emotions in behind them.
Heading into last week I shifted my short-term bias (weeks) from neutral to bullish.
This worked out rather nicely, with the S&P 500 closing every day in the green and crypto markets getting some relief from this recent selling.
I have flipped back my short-term bias (weeks) back to neutral with stocks pressing up to the highs. This fits into my intermediate bullish bias (months) as the market appears reserved heading into the election.
My longer-term bias (quarters) is still unequivocally bullish.
I've anticipated sideways price action for a month.
This continues as my intermediate outlook (months) has shifted from bullish to neutral as Bitcoin lost $56,000 and stocks appear as if they need time to improve.
My short-term outlook (weeks) moves from neutral to bullish, with Bitcoin and Ethereum at their lows and negative funding set us up for a bounce. I remain long on tokens like HNT, SOL, and BLUR holding support, but await further market shape before becoming overly bullish.
While crypto is down, Helium is up. That's relative strength.
I'm also watching Polygon for longs and Maker for shorts.
More widely, the correlation between crypto and stocks is back. With Bitcoin nearing my bullish invalidation of 56,000, stocks are selling off and that's dragging crypto down.
Crypto markets have been trending lower and I have purposefully been putting on very few trades. I think this is the best approach for now while the market sets up.
View this as a positive thing, because while many are losing money and getting emotional, we have the ability to be patient and preserve our capital.
This means that when the good times inevitably return, we can go back to making money rather than clawing back from a drawdown.