(Commodities Weekly) From Boom to Bust: What’s Next for Black Diamonds? 📈📉

May 23, 2025

Matt Warder appeared as the featured guest on today's Morning Show on Stock Market TV, which was an extra special treat for commodity junkies like us.

Matt is widely recognized as the best Coal analyst in the world.

He’s in constant contact with top executives in the space and is basically a walking commodity encyclopedia, especially when it comes to Black Diamonds.

We had the pleasure of meeting him in New Orleans for our Portfolio Accelerator event and walked away smarter for it.

So when Steve Strazza asked him what commodity he’s most excited about right now, we were all ears.

His answer? “Titanium.”

No hesitation.

Coming from someone with Matt’s pedigree in the Coal markets, that caught us off guard.

But after looking at the charts, it makes a lot of sense why he didn't mention Coal.

The commodity has come full circle:

Coal futures have completely retraced an 850% rally from the COVID lows. Price is now trading at its lowest level since 2021.

The massive uptrend that made Black Diamonds the biggest post-COVID winner? That trade is over now.

Momentum is weak, the trend is lower, and risk is to the downside.

We'll reevaluate our bearish bias if and when the price reclaims 120. That's our line in the sand.

Our Coking Coal Equity Index is hanging on by a thread:

Our Coking Coal Equity Index holds Alpha Metallurgical Resources $AMR, Warrior Met Coal $HCC, SunCoke Energy $SXC, and Ramaco Resources $METC.

We’ve been bearish on Coking Coal for months, and the market keeps confirming that stance.

This index is barely holding onto multi-year support.

It has formed a huge rounding top, which is a classic sign of distribution.

If this shelf breaks, it could trigger an accelerated move lower.

But the Coal industry isn't completely hopeless...

We've seen historic intrasector rotation:

When we last talked about the Black Diamond markets, our Thermal Coal Equity Index was putting the finishing touches on a massive breakout relative to our Coking Coal Equity Index.

Since then, we've seen momentum accelerate to the upside, and the price has now reached its highest level since 2020.

This is the kind of leadership we want to own.

However, we're not in a hurry to buy these stocks...

Our Thermal Coal Equity Index is a huge mess:

Our Thermal Coal Equity Index holds Alliance Resource Partners $ARLP, Peabody Energy $BTU, Core Natural Resources $CEIX, Natural Resource Partners $NRP, Hallador Energy $HNRG, and NACCO Industries $NC.

The index has been trendless for the last few years.

However, it hasn't gotten crushed like its Coking Coal peers (hence the relative strength).

The index has respected a clean rising channel for the last two years, but now finds itself smack in the middle.

The next directional move will be critical.

A breakdown from here, and the leadership baton could be dropped.

A breakout? And Thermal Coal names could become top performers again.

The bottom line is that Black Diamonds remain under pressure, and caution is warranted.

Coal futures have broken down decisively, and Coking Coal stocks are clinging to a support level that looks increasingly vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Thermal Coal stocks have shown relative strength but remain stuck in a sideways range.

While we’re not sounding the all-clear just yet, if you're going to be involved in this space, Thermal remains the strongest hand to play.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

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