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Front Row to a Commodity Supercycle

June 23, 2025

Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint:

đŸ”ș CRB Index starts curling higher
đŸ”ș Yield curve inverts
 then steepens
đŸ”ș And commodities don’t just rally—they detonate.

Look at the chart. 

2001 → Inversion → Steepening → Oil +300%
2006 → Same setup → Same outcome
2020 → Rinse and repeat

And now?

It’s happening again.

The CRB is coiling just beneath multi-year resistance. The kind of tight, coiled spring that doesn’t let go gently. Momentum is building. The yield curve—the most reliable forward indicator we’ve got—is turning up from historic depths.

This isn’t some lagging inflation print. This isn’t a Fed narrative. This is price. And price is truth.

This is a setup that only comes around a few times in a generation. Most investors sleep through it. They wait for confirmation. They miss it.

But not you.

Hemingway once said bankruptcy happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Commodity cycles are the same. They creep. They churn. Then they rip.

This is that moment in the novel where the foreshadowing stops—and the explosion begins.

You don’t chase it.
You position for it.
Because when this base resolves higher, it’s not a breakout. It’s a regime shift.

And this time, you’re not a spectator. You’re already in your seat, popcorn in hand, front row for the next act.

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