Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint:
đș CRB Index starts curling higher đș Yield curve inverts⊠then steepens đș And commodities donât just rallyâthey detonate.
Look at the chart.
2001 â Inversion â Steepening â Oil +300% 2006 â Same setup â Same outcome 2020 â Rinse and repeat
And now?
Itâs happening again.
The CRB is coiling just beneath multi-year resistance. The kind of tight, coiled spring that doesnât let go gently. Momentum is building. The yield curveâthe most reliable forward indicator weâve gotâis turning up from historic depths.
This isnât some lagging inflation print. This isnât a Fed narrative. This is price. And price is truth.
This is a setup that only comes around a few times in a generation. Most investors sleep through it. They wait for confirmation. They miss it.
But not you.
Hemingway once said bankruptcy happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Commodity cycles are the same. They creep. They churn. Then they rip.
This is that moment in the novel where the foreshadowing stopsâand the explosion begins.
You donât chase it. You position for it. Because when this base resolves higher, itâs not a breakout. Itâs a regime shift.
And this time, youâre not a spectator. Youâre already in your seat, popcorn in hand, front row for the next act.
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