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(Commodities Weekly) The Real Metalheads Are Back 🤘

July 4, 2025

Last week, we wrote about Copper futures breaking out to all-time highs, while the Copper Miners ETF $COPX is starting to play catch-up. 

The three copper miner trades we outlined for premium members last week are soaring to new highs. We think there's a tremendous amount of upside remaining.

That rally isn’t happening in a vacuum. 

It’s part of a much larger shift we’re seeing across the entire Base Metals space.

After years of choppy sideways action, Industrial Metals are beginning to trend again. 

Breakouts are happening. 

Leadership is expanding. 

And just like Copper, we’re now seeing signs of accumulation and strength in other key areas.

Let’s take a closer look at the evidence.

Base Metals are breaking out 🚀

Our Base Metals Index, which equally weights Copper, Aluminum, Steel, Nickel, Tin, Zinc, Lead, and Iron Ore, is resolving higher from a 3-year coil. 

That multi-year consolidation followed a 135% surge off the 2020 low. 

This breakout signals the start of a new leg higher. 

It also suggests that industrial metals, as a group, are ready to run.

Here's how the group has performed over multiple timeframes 👇

The breakout is showing up in the numbers. 

Copper is up nearly 26% over the past six months and leads all major Base Metals on a three-year basis. 

Cobalt, Tin, and Aluminum are also trending higher across multiple timeframes. 

Meanwhile, laggards like Zinc and Coking Coal are beginning to stabilize. 

This broadening strength is a key characteristic of early-stage bull markets.

The Metals & Mining ETF $XME is printing fresh multi-decade highs 📈

The Metals & Mining ETF just closed at its highest level since 2011. 

This fund holds a broad basket of U.S.-listed metals and mining stocks, including steel producers such as Nucor $NUE and Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF, aluminum giants like Alcoa $AA, and coal miners like Warrior Met Coal $HCC and Core Natural Resources $CNR.

It doesn’t just track one metal. Instead, it provides a comprehensive view of the entire U.S. mining and metals sector. 

When this breaks out, it indicates that institutional capital is flowing into the group. 

It’s a signal of improving breadth and a significant vote of confidence in the strength of the industrial economy.

Outperforming the entire commodity complex 🔥

Metals & mining stocks are also outperforming commodities as a whole. 

XME is printing fresh all-time highs relative to DBC, confirming a regime shift in relative strength. 

This decisively marks the resolution of a multi-decade basing pattern.

Base metals are waking up, and the market is finally noticing. 

First, it was Copper. Now it’s Aluminum, Steel, Nickel, and the stocks that produce them. 

The data and charts are clear... the breakout is happening.

We think this is just the beginning.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commitment of Traders Highlights

Due to a U.S. Federal holiday today, the COT report will be released next week.

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we’re outlining our top 3 setups in the Metals & Mining ETF $XME.

Premium members can see the entry and target levels below. 👇

 

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