They can scare and excite investors unlike any other.
But, here's the thing about drawing rigid comparisons to the past...
It's never going to be like 1987. Or 2017. The next crash and market turn won't look like the dot-com bubble or the financial crisis.
It will look the 2025 market. The one we're in now.
History never really repeats. It just rhymes and follows familiar rhythms.
And that is why we study charts like the one below.
This one is from Grant— He's our numbers guy. And he's the best in the business when it comes to studies and visuals like this one.
He is comparing S&P 500 bull markets throughout history, and showing us where the current cycle stacks up against the rest.
The S&P 500 is up about 73% in the roughly 700 days since bottoming back in 2022.
While it sounds like an impressive run, it's nothing compared to some other bull market periods.
The average bull market returns 154% over the course of 1,145 days.
The current bull market is not the best, but also not the worst. It's not the longest or the shortest either. It's kind of right in the middle compared to the other data points.
If it ended tomorrow, we wouldn't be surprised.
And if it ran on for another few years, and tacked on an additional 50% or so... that wouldn't surprise me either.
It's important to be open to a diverse range of outcomes, and this is why it is helpful to understand and consider the context of what went on yesterday.
However, we're here trying to make money in this market. Today. Tomorrow. This week. This quarter.
It's about what is happening now.
And this time won't be like any of those others.
It will be uniquely like 2025.
Small-caps
Speaking of differences in cycles, we're almost 3 years into the current bull market, and small caps have barely participated.
While it is uncommon to see such a lackluster performance from the smallest stocks, we think it's about to change.
This chart shows the Russell 2000 Index $IWM breaking back above its VWAP from last year's high. After a clean retest and rebound, are small caps about to join the party?
We think it would be appropriate. But at this point, "we gotta see it!"
Here's our Minor Leaguers scan:
We run this small cap focused universe every other week. It is designed to identify the leadership stocks in this pond of underperformers.
If investors ever start to slide down the cap-scale in search of risk, now would be the time.
And the names that are at the top of this list today, are likely to be the biggest winners once the space comes back into favor.
