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[Premium] Trade Of The Week

October 10, 2021

This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Auto sector. We're seeing strength come through in the Auto segment and thought of taking a look at a stock that's ripe for a bullish move.

Let's take a look at this stock.

Multiple Timeframes vs Planets & Stars

October 10, 2021

One of the first things you learn in Technical Analysis is that markets are fractal.

That means that you'll find the same human behaviors (i.e. price patterns) whether you're looking at daily timeframes, weekly time frames or even intraday (e.g. 10-min or 30-min candles).

This is a concept that Brian Shannon has done an amazing job of highlighting throughout his career. Brian has been an inspiration to me since about 2005, which is pretty unbelievable to think about. Since then we've become friends and go skiing together and all that. It's pretty cool how life works sometimes.

Anyway, the idea behind "Multiple Timeframes", which is literally part of the title of Brian's book (go buy it), is to use this reality of "markets being fractal" to our advantage.

That can mean a lot of different things to different people.

For us, in what we do here at All Star Charts is, we start with Weekly and Monthly time horizons. That's where it all begins.

Check-In Check-Out Time is Back!

October 10, 2021

We've been discussing Covid for so long now, that it feels as though it's been going on forever. It carried out massive damage across different segments. But we are now seeing a resumption in trends that have been in place long enough to call them trends.

As we know, travel had been largely affected by the pandemic. Getting out of the house to buy groceries became the new travel plan! But not anymore!

We're now witnessing a strong and consistent pick-up in flight and hotel bookings which means that we can start taking a look at the shares that belong to these categories as well!

So let's do just that.

First up, let's take a look at the custom Leisure Index that we track at ASC.

As can be seen from the chart below, the custom Leisure Index is at a crucial level. Currently trading close to its 2019 highs, the index seems ready to break out soon. And why is it that we think so?

Because there are signals that are coming through from the constituents of the index that suggest so.

Click on the image to zoom in.

...

Never Say Never: Indian Market Leadership in Global Setup

October 10, 2021

Presenting to you, dear readers, the Never Say Never series. Here we will discuss all those topics that a typical market participant thinks could never happen. I am a strong believer in faith and everything but I also know to never challenge the universe - in our case: the market.

I learned early on, that biases are a natural by-product of the human mind. Everyone has them, in some form or the other. But one ought to leave these biases right outside the door before entering the market. Because as soon as you believe that something could never happen, most often it does.

I had a client ask me incessantly what the next major support of a particular stock was, and after ten revisions, I said 0. "Your maximum risk is if the stock goes to 0". He stared at me, his mouth agape with incredulity.

Cut to today, where I cannot make that statement again. You see, Crude Oil traded below 0. And that changed the very idea most people believed in, me included.

So here we are today to discuss with you things in the market that may leave you astounded.

Today we are going to discuss something that...

The Bulls Are Scoring More Points

October 9, 2021

One thing unique about the market is that the game is never over. There aren't four 15-min quarters or two 20-min halves like in sports.

In those endeavors there is a beginning and an end.

You know who won (or who tied in some cases). But the match is over, and there will be another one in a few days or a few months, depending on the sport.

In the market, it never ends. This can cause issues psychologically, so it's something we should all be aware of and keep in mind.

But if you ask me, currently the bulls are scoring a lot more points. This is the first time we've seen that since Q1 this year, when the bears started running up the score.

Look at the S&P500 break out to new all-time highs relative to US Treasury Bonds.

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The Hall of Famers (10-8-2021)

October 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft -- with market caps in excess of $2T -- to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It’s got all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we’re developing a separate universe for that, and we’ll be sharing it with you soon.

So, The Hall of Famers is easy.

We simply take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here's this week's list:

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • We filtered out any stocks that were below their May 10 highs, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S&P 500
  • ...
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Commodities Coiling Up Energy

October 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities have been on an absolute tear, with our Equal-Weight Commodity Index up almost 40% over the trailing year. 

But ever since Q2, the vast majority of the space has been chopping sideways along with most cyclical assets. 

Sounds a lot like stocks, doesn’t it? And while we’re still yet to see any major resolutions from equities, we have seen some bullish developments in the commodities market of late.

Energy asserted itself as the new leadership group with a series of major breakouts. Both crude and heating oil broke to new six-year highs, while gasoline futures completed a seven-year base. 

Then there’s natural gas, which gained more than 25% during the trailing month and tested its 2014 highs just above 6.

The emerging leadership from energy comes as no surprise, as we noticed signs of relative strength last month.  

Now that it’s here, what are the implications for the rest of the commodity space and global risk assets?

Let’s take a look at a couple of charts to see what...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

October 8, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We like to say that dollars flow to where they are treated best. If that is the case, commodities could soon see a surge of inflows. The DBC/AGG ratio shows commodities surging to new multi-year highs versus bonds and the DBC/SPY ratio shows strength versus stocks as well. DBC has more than doubled up SPY on a YTD return basis (43% vs 18%). Commodities are proving again to be a place of relative safety when inflation and bond yields are on the rise. For many investors, commodity exposure isn’t even included as part of the asset allocation discussion. At least, not yet.