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Mystery Chart 11-25-2019

November 25, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Up Doc

November 25, 2019

It's been an epic trip to India and Japan for the All Star Charts team, so sorry for the decreased frequency of trade ideas during the past week. We're on a plane now headed back to the U.S. and JC and I were chatting between in-flight meals (10 hour flight from Tokyo!) about some opportunities we're seeing out our windows from 30,000 feet over the Pacific Ocean.

One such area that has our attention is the US Healthcare Providers space. Earlier in the week, our boy Bruni published a piece featuring a bunch of stocks to watch here.

The one stock that most caught my eye was one setting up for a hundred-dollar-roll and all-time highs.

Video: Why CFTC Data Keeps Us Selling Gold

November 22, 2019

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about why we want to keep selling gold and buy stocks instead. This trade is working and we don't want to fight it. This has been our base case for months, as you can see here. One of the things that we want to incorporate into our study of price is the positioning of Commercial Hedgers and Speculators, which is published weekly by the CFTC in the Commitment of Traders Report.

In this video I explain how we use this data, why we care, and when to pay attention!

All Star Charts Premium

Providing Opportunity In Healthcare

November 22, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart had a lot of people talking and guessing (incorrectly, as usual), so thank you all for your feedback and participation.

Overall the feedback was the chart was a longer-term buy, but people had concerns about how far it's run in the near-term.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

Here's the US Healthcare Providers (IHF) which is emerging from a consolidation via a sharp rally as momentum gets overbought.

Overall this looks like the start of the subsector's next major move to the upside, but we'll get more information about its sustainability from seeing how prices digest their more than 20% gains since early October. Bulls want to see that correction occur through time, rather than...

Mystery Chart 11-19-2019

November 19, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Why We're Buying Stocks & Selling Rocks

November 19, 2019

Let's take a step back and talk about what a huge waste of money I think it is to own gold. It's not just that I don't think it goes up in value, it's more about what else we could be doing with that money. It's the opportunity cost here that I believe burns the hole in your pocket. Will our money be treated better in rocks or in stocks? I still think it's in stocks.

In early October, I put out a note reiterating why we wanted to be selling gold. This is after over a year of a bullish approach towards the yellow metal. So to be clear, I am not a gold bug or a gold hater. The truth is that I couldn't care less whether gold doubles in price or gets cut in half. It's not my problem. For me, Gold is just another asset in a humongous world of many assets. If you think it's anything more than that, I believe you've already lost.

As a reminder, a big reason why we were so bullish of Gold throughout the 4th quarter last year and beyond was because Commercial Hedgers had on their largest net long position in history. Commercial hedgers in...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Resting Interest Rates

November 18, 2019

There might not be a bull market everywhere. It seems interest rates are taking a breather here and deciding their next move. And while they consolidate, options markets are currently pricing in some elevated premiums that are pretty tempting to sell if you're a believer in options volatility mean reversion (I am!).

 

Podcast: The Volatility Episode w/ Andrew Thrasher

November 18, 2019

Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much "complacency" towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility!

Earth Breaks Out To All-Time Highs

November 16, 2019

If you weren't too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH

After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year's highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long.