Monday was our Members-Only Conference Call for both India and the US (see JC's video here) and the most overwhelming theme was that Equities are not trending, so what does that mean for us as market participants?

Twice a year the Nifty Indexes are reconstituted on March 31 and September 30, replacing stocks that don't fit the criteria with those that do. This past weekend we adjusted our chartbooks to reflect the changes that occurred at the end of the first quarter, so I wanted to write a quick post detailing some of the changes.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.

The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

We hear this term a lot: "Overhead Supply". But what does that mean exactly?

Well, I'll tell you what it means to me. When I look at today's stock market, I see stocks rallying throughout 2017 and running into resistance, or more selling than buying, in January of 2018. After some distribution, stocks rallied once again late into the 3rd quarter last year, only fail and sell off. That was a beautiful sell-off in stocks that many of us enjoyed very much.

Fast forward to 2019 and we've had a killer rally in stocks that has brought us back to where this overhead supply party first got started early last year. This is now the 3rd attempt and failure for stocks. And when I say stocks, I don't just mean the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, I'm referring to stocks as an asset class.

In this video, I try and explain what I mean by pointing out the behavior of the Global 100 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Composite Average, Dow Jones Internet Index and the IPO Index. They're all telling a similar story of "Overhead Supply". In the future, when I give...

David Zarling is a newly minted CMT Charterholder. He is Partner and Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Client First Tax and Wealth Advisors out of Wisconsin. David and I have gotten to know each other over the years and I really appreciate all of the things he is doing. In this podcast episode, David walks us through his process and how it has evolved throughout his career. He uses Technical Analysis to help manage money for clients and most importantly manage risk. I've seen a lot of him lately. He attended Chart Summit in Breckenridge, CO in February and then the CMT Symposium in New York in April. He talks about why he goes out of his way to get around like minded individuals to talk about the markets and find people to challenge his thinking. I also really liked the part about the analogies he uses when talking to clients about Technical Analysis and his process. I thought this discussion was a real value add.

Stocks have lost firm footing in recent weeks. And while things may look a little sloppy out there in some corners, it is a constructive exercise to focus our attention on the sectors and stocks that are holding up well in this tape.

An iconic American credit card company is exhibiting a take charge attitude that has me interested in running up my balance.

People love to hear a good story. We have an evolutionary desire to gossip and be told stories even if we know they're untrue. As Sapiens, it's important to know this about ourselves. But you know who definitely knows it? The media. And they're going to use that desire against you every single day for their own profit. They will tell you stories all day every day as long as you're willing to listen. They're so thirsty for your attention that they'll tell you anything just so they can sell ads to their precious sponsors. It's their job to make the noise. It's our job to ignore it.

Today, I'm going to show you the chart that actually tells the real story about what is going on in today's market. I comb through thousands of charts a week and I can tell you for a fact that there is one underlying theme that I'm seeing across the board: Stocks, Sectors and Indexes, and that is the Overhead supply we've been stuck below since early last year. 

As US stocks rallied for most of this year, many stocks in the Metals, Mining, Coal, and Steel sectors could not get out of their own way and refused to participate in the broad rally. Back in March, All Star Charts published a report highlighting this. So naturally, as stocks begin to soften across the board, it's time to lean into these bad boys and push them off a cliff.

When trading against the primary trend, there are a few things we look for to define our risk and raise our probability of success.

We outlined them in a post a while back, but they essentially boil down to the following:

1. Our downside price target has been met.
2. Prices undercut that price target and quickly reversed.
3. Momentum diverged positively as prices made a new low.
4. Prices are very extended from their mean (200-day moving average).
5. Quick follow-through confirmed the supply/demand imbalance.
6. Short interest in the stock (not required, but amplifies move).

We are now seeing a few potential opportunities given that stocks have been hit, some harder than others, over the last few weeks.

Here's Reliance Infrastructure quickly reversing off our downside price objective near 100.30 as momentum diverges. As long...

In early June I'm coming to Europe to talk charts, meet with clients and try to learn as much as I can. I've been incredibly fortunate over the years to be able to speak at events and meet with investors all over Asia and around America. My trips to India, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines have been great experiences that help me throughout my process every single day. Learning and experiencing as much as I can has easily been the most rewarding investment I've ever made.

My goal on this trip is to finally get to meet with people I've been interacting with regularly for many years, catch up with old friends who live there that I only get to see in the States, and getting new perspective from local clients and colleagues. That's the whole point. If you only hang out with people from New York, or the U.S. for that matter, you're only seeing things from that same lens. I want to know how other people look at things. That's how we grow.

If you're in Europe and want to make the trip, or if I'm coming to your backyard that's even better! I'll walk you through my process using the Top/Down Intermarket approach and we'll look at charts...