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[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

September 29, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Bulls continue to retreat while bears remain relatively unchanged. The current imbalance in sentiment speaks to cooling optimism and an increasing degree of caution. In recent weeks bears have been on the rise, but so far that has been a short term event. It does not mean that all has been repaired from a sentiment perspective. On the contrary, risks remain elevated. If history is any lesson, the fear and pessimism associated with a complete unwind in optimism will not materialize without instigation from downside volatility. It’s often falling prices that lead the way and fan the flames.

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2 to 100 Club (09-29-2021)

September 29, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Every Technician's Dream

September 29, 2021

Cryptocurrencies are every technical analyst's dream.

No gaps.

24/7 markets.

No circuit breakers.

Countless technical tools.

No arbitrary fundamental models.

No government intervention.

Pure supply and demand at work.

Without getting too philosophical, there's a trend in traditional markets toward the democratization of financial information. Nowadays, people have almost the same access to data and platforms as the bigger guys. There are projects like Koyfin that are leveling the playing field and giving the small guy opportunities they didn't have just a few decades ago.

[Options] Premium Utility

September 29, 2021

If you like action, then you've enjoyed this week so far.

The markets looked ho-hum for most of the day Monday. But then the last hour offered us a harbinger of things to come. And Tuesday's gap and crap confirmed the bulls' worst fears.

But as usual, bears might have gotten a bit ahead of themselves as today's action seems to suggest.

Either way, the indecision and confusion in the markets is resulting in elevated options premiums -- which is what we can expect. As options players, this puts us in the position of wanting to look for opportunities to take the other side of this fear by getting short these elevated premiums.

Scanning my list of my liquid ETFs, I've found a great candidate to sell premium in.

Mystery Chart (09-29-2021)

September 29, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

*** Click here to read the reveal post for this Mystery Chart ***

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention and remove the x and y axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes, it’s an absolute price chart. Other times, it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is: Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Outback Steakhouse and Crude Oil

September 29, 2021

Today we're taking a look at Bloomin Brands, which owns Outback, as well as other restaurants like Carrabba's and Fleming's.

I can't help but look at all that former resistance from 2013-2014 and again in 2018. Is this recent correction back to that level just the retest?

Or is price going down under?

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A Currency Pair for Rising Rates

September 28, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US 10-year yield has made a decisive move back above 1.40% in recent sessions.

We’ve been pounding the table about this critical level for months now--and for a good reason. It’s a vital component of the global growth narrative and rotation into cyclicals.

And most investors probably aren’t prepared for it!

Yesterday, JC and Steve discussed areas that demand attention in a rising rate environment and how we should position ourselves. You can check it out here.

Think cyclical and value stocks. And don’t forget economically sensitive commodities like energy and base metals.

But what about currency markets?

For starters, most currencies versus the US dollar should be beneficiaries of rising rates. This is particularly true for commodity-centric currencies like the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble, and the South African rand.

This Indicator SCREAMS Risk-On!

September 28, 2021

You know me, I'm skeptical of everything and everyone.

You have to earn my trust.

And if there's one indicator in this market that has earned my trust and attention over the years, it's the relationship between Consumer Staples and the rest of the market. More specifically, Staples relative to Consumer Discretionary stocks.

You see, when portfolio managers believe stocks are going higher, they are going to overweight Consumer Discretionary stocks. These are things like Retailers, Automobiles and Housing stocks. Areas where "Consumers" spend their "Discretionary" Income.

Consumer Staples, on the other hand, are things "Consumers" are going to spend money on regardless of economic conditions, therefore being "Staples". Think Toothpaste, Laundry Detergent, Beer, Soda and Cigarettes.

I have two ways to look at these:

Your 30-Second Sentiment Check!

September 28, 2021

As we enter the 4th Quarter of 2021, what better time than the present to check in on market sentiment.

As readers of Allstarcharts.com, we consider you to be the smart money.

So we want to hear from you!

All I'm asking is that you take a few seconds to answer these 7 easy questions, and I promise to send you the final poll results at the end of the week!

Take the quick sentiment survey here.

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The Minor Leaguers (09-27-2021)

September 27, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest “Minor Leaguers” report.

We’ve already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, “Under The Hood.”

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps….

For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but we think it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we’re doing this is simple…

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B. And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component–it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe. 

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Follow The Flow (09-27-2021)

September 27, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

I just don't care

September 27, 2021

The best lessons are learned the hard way.

That's just the way life goes.

One of the most important things I've come to understand about markets, and life, is that you have to worry about yourself first, you have to take care of your family first, and then you can go out and help others.

If your own house isn't in order, not only are you not able to help other people, but you may actually do more harm to them than good.

Depending on where you are in your life, that perspective may change. But in the market, as an investor, there are no exceptions!

You're only in it for numero uno.

Just to be clear, if you're in the market for ANY other reason other than to make a profit for yourself, then you are unbelievably confused.