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The FAANGs Are Not Even Tech Stocks!

December 14, 2020

I'm not sure when this happened. When did they start grouping any company that uses a computer into the Technology Sector?

First of all, 80% of the FAANG stocks represent a ZERO weighting in the Technology Sector. ZERO.

Facebook and Google are in the Communications Index, together representing approximately 45% of that sector. Combined, $FB & $GOOD represent ZERO percent of the Technology Sector. Netflix $NFLX accounts for another 4% or so Communications, and again, a ZERO weighting in Tech.

Furthermore, Amazon represents approximately 21% of the Consumer Discretionary Index. When you look at the Technology Sector, you'll find that $AMZN has a ZERO weighting.

The latest version of journalists grouping any company that uses a computer into the "Technology Sector" is Airbnb and DoorDash. Neither one of these are in the Tech sector, but instead are both in the Communications Index. Together $ABNB & $DASH represent a ZERO weighting in Tech.

Meanwhile these are the fairytales they feed you...

Japan Breaks Out To 29-Year Highs. What Are We Buying?

December 14, 2020

Japan continues to rally as it breaks out to new 29-year highs.

And just think, the Japanese Nikkei225 can rip another 40% from here and still not get back to its highs from the late 1980s. That's how long it takes a bubble of that magnitude to correct itself.

Let's remember, at its peak in 1989, the real estate value of just one single park in Tokyo was worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined. I've been to that park. It's ok I guess. But not worth more than all of Cali, quite obviously.

So here's what that Nikkei chart looks like today:

4 Signs of a Market Correction

December 11, 2020

During bull markets I always get asked about when it's going to stop. I don't get asked about stock market bubbles and unsustainable valuations during bear markets, that's for sure. Those environments come with other kinds of funny questions.

This morning I woke up to one of my college buddies telling me that tech valuations are too high and that this has to be a bubble.

Journalists ask me every day how this can possibly continue. "Too high", they say. "Too fast", they tell me. "Fed Printing", they claim. "It's only 5 stocks!!!"... I can't.

Anyway, maybe this is the top. Maybe we are about to crash. Maybe valuations are too high....

But there's no evidence at all that this is the top. New All-time highs are not characteristic of downtrends. They are things we see regularly in uptrends. In fact, new highs are perfectly normal, and should even be expected in this type of environment.

Louis' Look: The Superpower of Simplicity

December 10, 2020

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

It's always hard for us market nerds to level with others who don't share our obsession for Finance.

And that's important because, with all the noise of today, I think there's a very real barrier to finding sound information. While I'm by no means an authority on this subject (in fact quite the opposite), whenever I talk to people about Finance, I always hear two complaints.

That it's boring and too complicated.

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Young Aristocrats (December 2020)

December 9, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.

Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are "stocks that pay you to make money". Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

[Options] To Da Moon!?

December 9, 2020

Few things take the mind on a flight of fancy like the thought of interstellar space travel. Who hasn't taken a look at the night sky and wondered what's up there?

Richard Branson took a look and wondered the same thing. Only, he decided to try to make it happen. Enter: Virgin Galactic, a company looking to open up space for recreational travel.

Investors seem to be willing to bet along with Sir Branson that humanity with believe space travel is a worthwhile exploration. This chart here shows $SPCE on the verge of emerging from a 10-month base. And as JC often says: "The bigger the base, the higher in space!" And that couldn't me more appropriate than here.

[Video] Small-caps, Germany & Which Rocks To Own

December 9, 2020

This week, Julie and I talk about some of the things that stood out the most on last week's Monthly Chart Review.

Among them were the Market Capitalization rotation into Small & Mid-caps and out of those Mega-cap stocks.

Germany and Japan making new highs leading the international charge higher.

And which rocks would we rather own: Precious Metals or Base Metals?

Check it out:

This Is What Overwhelming Supply Looks Like

December 9, 2020

I don't want to keep talking about the same asset, you guys know we pride ourselves in looking for opportunities all over the world and across asset classes. But this Bitcoin scenario right now presents us with the perfect opportunity to explain what overwhelming amount of supply looks like. So bear with me, no pun intended (ok maybe a little).

Our upside objectives in Gold and Bitcoin were both hit recently. They were the former highs from 2011 and 2017, respectively. We discussed this in our Greater Fool discussion.

But WHY were those our targets? WHY were we, and still are, so focused on those former highs?

The reason is because it is a FACT, that last time Bitcoin was up here just under 20,000 there was more selling pressure than buying pressure. There was more supply than demand. This isn't like "JC's Opinion", or the opinion of my team. These are just facts. Bull or bear, bitcoin cult leader or not, you can't disagree there. Last time prices were up here, they fell. And they fell hard.

Mystery Chart (12-08-2020)

December 8, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to this exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Are US Interest Rates Going Higher?

December 8, 2020

I think this is an important discussion. Which way are rates headed?

Remember, Interest Rates setting up for a collapse was one of the reasons we were so bearish equities in late January, and looking to own bonds instead.

The thought process in January was the following: If 10s are going to break their 2012 & 2016 lows, is that most likely happening in an environment where stocks are doing well? Or are rates collapsing most likely taking place in an environment where stocks are under pressure?

Our bet was the latter. We used rates as a leading indicator.

Today we're doing the same thing. But the data coming in is the exact opposite.

First of all, here are US rates going out last week at new 9-month highs:

Media Appearance: Sector, Market-cap & International Rotation

December 8, 2020

Monday afternoon I popped on to BNN Bloomberg to have my regular chat with Catherine Murray. These are always fun because we focus on what actually happening in the market, versus all the gossip that revolves around it.

Remember, we're coming off my Just Buy Them Baby interview with Catherine from July. We got a lot of funny emails from people after that one. But as it turns out, just buying them worked out very well.

So where do we go from here?

Here's the interview in full: 

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (12-04-2020)

December 7, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's report, we outlined how the market was in an incredibly healthy state of order. We've been seeing rotation into SMIDS and Micro-Caps, strong breadth, and a sustained bid for Growth, particularly down the market-cap scale.

This week, we're harping on a similar theme.

The weight of the evidence, particularly from an intermediate and long-term time horizon, looks excellent.