Alfonso’s Daily Note Articles

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When we look outside the US, even the riskiest stocks in the world are in rally mode. 

It’s not just developed markets showing strength—emerging markets are also breaking out.

Below, we have the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF $FRDM breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.

This ETF is built differently from other EM funds. It ranks personal and economic freedom in countries around the world—and weights the index accordingly. 

I like it for that reason. But I like it even more because it has consistently outperformed its EM peers since its launch.

Among its major country exposures are Chile, Taiwan, South Korea, and Poland— these countries make up almost 70% of the fund.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s that new all-time highs are a characteristic of bull markets.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now — fresh all-time highs popping up everywhere.

Some of the most important stocks on the planet are joining the list.

On one hand, we have JPMorgan Chase $JPM — the largest bank in the U.S and bellwether for the Financial sector. 

If this one’s breaking out, it’s tough to argue against the underlying strength and health of the market.

Then there’s Nvidia $NVDA, the biggest company in the world and the gate-keeper of the AI revolution. What more is there to say that we don’t already know?

After spending the past year moving sideways, digesting gains, the stock is breaking out to its highest level ever.

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“Bull market shirts tomorrow, boys!”

That’s the message circulating internally.

And in case you haven’t heard… It’s because we’re in a bull market.

And today, the evidence is overwhelming.

It doesn’t matter what the headlines say. It doesn’t matter what the journalists dressed as economists are warning about. Investors are looking through it all — and they continue to embrace risk.

Some are still fighting it because “it doesn’t make sense.”

But guess what? The market doesn’t care. It never has.

Markets are discounting mechanisms. They process all data and they express it in one simple thing: price.

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Since yesterday afternoon, my X feed has been nothing but noise about rising tensions in the Middle East.

The headlines are loud. WWIII chatter. Panic everywhere.

Everyone’s trying to guess what happens next.

But the market’s telling a different story.

Homebuilders ripped. Offensive sectors led.

Silver outperformed gold. Crude oil dropped 8%.

Defensive stocks like staples lagged.

And Bitcoin? Back above 105K.

In the middle of all the chaos, that was the tape — and it was undeniably bullish.

If this is what the end of the world looks like…...

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The market’s been handing out invitations left and right… and just about everyone has shown up.

Speculative growth, Semis, Industrials — even Energy has caught a bid.

It’s been a broad and steady move off the April lows. Almost everything’s working.

Almost.

One group that continues to sit on the sidelines? Homebuilders.

They’ve completely sat out this rally so far.

The SPDR Homebuilders ETF $XHB has done nothing — just hovering below the lower bounds of a nasty topping formation.

This zone also lines up with the 38.2% retracement from the 2022–2024 rally, adding to the confluence of interest here.

Homebuilders tend to be the life and soul of the party in bull markets.

These are some of the most economically sensitive names out there. When they’re trending higher, it usually means we’re in a healthy environment and investors are embracing risk.

So now what?

Are we betting Homebuilders...

If you’ve been following me this year, you know I’m a big fan of using ratios to get a real read on market health and figure out what kind of environment we’re in.

It’s been one of the most consistent tools in my toolbox, and it’s worked all year.

One ratio I always come back to is staples versus the S&P 500. And I’m not alone — JC made it one of the key themes in his latest mid-month call with ASC Premium members.

It’s such a clean way to gauge risk appetite.

When investors are feeling good and leaning into risk, staples underperform, and the ratio moves lower. 

But when things get dicey, that line ticks higher as money rotates into safer, more defensive names.

The inverse relationship between stocks and staples-relatives has played out again and again across cycles.

Right now, this ratio is sitting on a key support level.

I can’t think of anything more bullish for equities...

Energy’s been one of the most active areas of the market lately, with momentum building across the board.

It feels like this forgotten corner of the market is finally getting the attention it needed.

Crude’s squeezing, heating oil has gone vertical, and gasoline’s catching a bid.  

If this momentum sticks, I think Nat Gas is next in line.

Just look at the chart:

Natty gas been coiling right at the breakout level of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal for roughly three months.

But what really catches my eye is that price is setting up between two key VWAPs — one from the 2022...

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I’ve been flipping through charts all day — and man, things look great out there.

It’s wild how fast sentiment can shift these days. Just a couple days ago, people were panicking over geopolitical headlines. But honestly, that was just noise.

There’s always something out there to shake people out of good positions. 

But as technicians, our job is to tune out the noise, and just follow price.

Friday was just any old down day — nothing more. Today, markets came right back and ripped higher.

As I was going through some setups this morning, Steve messaged me: “It almost looks too good out here —...

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With geopolitical pressures heating up in the Middle East, cybersecurity stocks are back in focus.

These companies build the digital armor that protects governments, businesses, and ordinary folks from online threats—and honestly, that feels more essential than ever right now.

The Cybersecurity ETF $HACK is up 34% from its April lows, and it’s been outperforming the broader market the whole way.

After a clean retest of its prior cycle highs, HACK is boomeranging with a near-vertical move. 

Now it’s bumping up against that 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 85 — the same level that stopped it cold earlier this year.

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When I started diving into markets back in 2018, bonds barely caught my eye. Now, they’re on my radar every single day.

Over time, I’ve learned just how important they really are.

You might not like it. Maybe they seem boring or too slow. Maybe you don’t trade them at all.

But the bond market moves everything else. It always has—and it always will.

For some perspective, the bond market sits at $140 trillion—far bigger than global equities, with gold, silver, and crypto nowhere near that size.

Every time the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT gets down near this level, buyers show up.

Every single time.

If TLT is...

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Semiconductors are probably the most important companies on the planet—they power today’s economy and carry heavy weight in major global indexes.

How they perform often sets the tone for the broader market.

Earlier this year, semis looked like they were about to break down and complete a nasty top relative to the S&P 500.

However, that didn’t last long. They bounced back quickly and reclaimed a key support level.

Bulls are scoring points and hooking higher, invalidating any negative implications from a potential breakdown.

This action can only be seen as a positive signal for the entire market.

After all, the big players are here to play—not to be benched...

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The biggest development this week is unfolding in the market’s most risk-on corners.

When we look down the cap scale, small-cap stocks are breaking out—reclaiming a key level of resistance at the index level.

The Russell 2000 $IWM didn’t just punch through a horizontal brick wall—it also broke above a downward trendline that’s been in place since the highs from last year.

Most importantly, it’s now trading above the anchored VWAP from its all-time high.

That last point is crucial—it means the average buyer since the Russell’s peak is finally in the green.

Buyers are back in control, marking a major development that reinforces the bullish thesis for equities.

...