(Commodities Weekly) Running on Empty: This Chart's Out of Fuel 📉

April 4, 2025

What a week for the global asset markets.

On Wednesday, the United States announced new tariffs against dozens of countries. This set off a wave of selling pressure, which appears to have no end in sight.

Silver is down nearly 15% this week...

Copper was down nearly 15% this week...

Lumber was down 13% this week...

The energy complex was down nearly 10% across the board this week...

Even Gold fell 2% this week.

It was quick. It was nasty. And it's not over.

For the bears out there, it's hard to find a better setup than Crude Oil futures.

This chart is out of energy 👇

Crude Oil futures have broken a confluence of support levels

The VWAP anchored to the 2018 peak (red)
The VWAP anchored to the pre-Covid peak (teal)
The VWAP anchored to the Covid-low (blue)
and the 38.2% retracement of the explosive rally from 2020 to 2022

This is about as clean and clear a breakdown as the market can signal.

The next question is, how low can it go? Only time will tell, but we doubt it will drop below zero again (although it's certainly possible).

For now, it's time to preserve our capital and consider shorting Crude Oil futures, if that's your strategy.

Are you shorting Crude Oil futures? Let us know what you think.

Commitment of Traders Highlights

Commercial hedgers added over 13,000 contracts and are carrying their smallest net-short positions in Crude Oil in the last 3-years.
Commercials added over 8,000 contracts to one of their largest net-long Soybean Meal positions ever.
Commercial hedgers added over 13,000 contracts to one of their largest net-long positions in Chicago Wheat ever.