(Commodities Weekly) Breadth Expansion: The Next Leg of the Commodity Supercycle 📈

Copper has started a fire in commodities.

 We’re seeing breadth expansion across the board.

From industrial metals to shipping rates, the pieces are falling into place for a multi-year commodities rally. 

Today’s charts show why this move is just getting started – and why it could last for years.

A Major Shift Underway

This overlay chart shows the Commodities Ex-Gold Index (black) and the same index relative to Gold (blue). 

Every time the blue line hit major lows, it marked key turning points for the commodity complex. 

But this time is different. Commodities aren’t crashing into that low – they’ve been holding steady.

That’s a huge tell. It means the relative weakness we’ve seen in recent years is finally exhausting. 

When this ratio turns higher, it often sparks a broad, multi-year commodity bull market. 

We’re right at that inflection point.

Commodities Ex-Gold is printing fresh 3-year highs

After ripping 110% higher in just 2 years post-COVID, the Commodities Ex-Gold Index has spent several years consolidating sideways. 

Now it’s resolving higher, printing fresh three-year highs.

This isn’t the kind of move that fizzles out in a few weeks. This is the beginning of a new cyclical leg higher. 

A multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern like this typically gives rise to a sustained, powerful primary uptrend.

Baltic Dry Index – A major fundamental tell

At the very top of the commodities performance table, you’ll find the Baltic Dry Index up a staggering 22% in the past five days. It's dramatically outperforming all of our other commodity indexes over the short to intermediate timeframes.

This index measures the cost of shipping raw materials, including iron ore, coal, and grains, worldwide. 

When it’s screaming higher, it means global demand for physical commodities is surging. 

That’s the fundamental backdrop you want to see confirming these technical breakouts.

The resolution of a Kardashian Bottom

BDRY – the ETF tracking dry bulk shippers – just made new year-to-date highs, breaking out of a textbook Kardashian bottom pattern. 

Earlier this year, it experienced its best single-day rally since 2021, marking the initiation of this new primary trend.

Now it’s entering the actual uptrend phase. And remember – strong shipping rates are the canary in the coal mine for broad commodity strength.

First, it was Gold ringing the dinner bell with new all-time highs back in March 2024. 

Then Silver, Platinum, and Palladium followed. 

Next came Copper with its best day ever. 

Lithium and Rare Earths are next. 

And now the entire commodity complex is waking up.

This is breadth expansion – the hallmark of a new cyclical bull market. 

We’ve been ahead of it every step of the way, and it’s only just getting started.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we’re highlighting a fertilizer stock that we believe is poised to enter a brand-new primary uptrend.

We've been bullish on these stocks for a while now. We began fertilizing our portfolios earlier this year, and many of the setups remain actionable.

Premium members can see the entry and target levels below. 👇