How to Win When Everyone Else Is Fighting the Wrong War
August 13, 2025
When Aristotle tutored the young Alexander the Great, he taught him to see the world not just as it was, but as it could be. Strategy wasn’t about reacting to the battle in front of you — it was about shaping the campaign ahead. That mindset is exactly what markets demand today.
Yesterday’s CPI print came in at 2.7% year-over-year — slightly softer than forecast. Bond yields tried to rally over the last few sessions but remain trapped in their range. The market reacted like a nervous general, pricing in an 86% probability of a September 17th rate cut.
Here’s the problem: it’s the wrong campaign plan. Traders see softer CPI and imagine an open door to an aggressive easing cycle. But my models, like Aristotle’s long view, see something else — inflation is likely to accelerate into year end.
That shift changes the entire macro battlefield. Rising inflation will keep pressure on the U.S. dollar, already showing cracks. A weaker dollar is a supply line for international equities, many of which have shrugged off U.S. market volatility. It’s also ammunition for commodities — from gold to silver to meats and metals — the very forces already showing leadership in our Macro Trend Finder scans.
If the Fed cuts in September, expect it to be a one or two and done, not the start of the grand easing campaign the market hopes for. That makes piling into assets that need multiple cuts to perform a dangerous overextension.
And here’s the overlooked flank: bonds have been losing the war since March 2020 — not just against equities, but against commodities. Even during recent commodity pullbacks, bonds have lagged badly. The ratio charts are the maps: commodities are in a long cycle leadership trend relative to bonds, and that trend is holding the high ground.
Alexander understood that the battle you win today must serve the campaign you want tomorrow. In this market, that means positioning in precious metals, global cyclicals, and international leadership — the territories most likely to gain from a weaker dollar and stickier inflation.
Bonds are waving the white flag. Commodities are advancing. The campaign for year end is already underway.
Catch the next 10x trade!
Today at 2PM, Steve walked you step-by-step through how I find trades like this before they move, how he sized them, and how he managed them for outsized returns.
