If you’re long Energy inside Gold Rush, there is one chart that matters right now outside of crude itself.
It’s not OPEC. It’s not geopolitics. It’s not earnings.
It’s $TLT — the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
Take a look at the chart.
$TLT has been in a structural downtrend since the 2020 peak. Lower highs. Lower lows. Failed rallies. Every bounce has been sold. The long-term trend remains flat to lower.
But now we’re pressing into a key level near the 52 week high around the $92–93 area.
That’s where things get interesting.
If bonds break out to a new 52 week high and hold it, that would imply:
Long-term yields are falling.
Growth expectations are cooling.
Inflation pressures are easing.
And that’s not ideal for Energy.
Energy thrives in a reflationary environment. It does well when nominal growth is stable or improving, when inflation is sticky, and when yields are firm. A sustained bond breakout would suggest the opposite — a shift toward defensive positioning.
That’s why this level matters.
Now zoom out.
Are we in a bond bull market?
Not yet.
The larger trend is still sideways to down. Every rally in bonds over the past few years has ultimately been short lived. Structurally, the bond market has not proven it can sustain upside momentum.
Meanwhile, the broader environment still leans reflationary:
Copper breaking out.
Materials leading.
Energy outperforming.
Cyclicals near highs.
That backdrop does not support a lasting surge in long-duration bonds.
My base case remains that any rally in bonds here is likely countertrend — short lived within a bigger flat-to-lower structure. But we don’t ignore risk just because we have conviction.
If $TLT clears a 52 week high and sustains it, that’s information. At that point, we reassess. We don’t panic. We don’t overreact. We evaluate whether leadership is rotating and whether Energy’s relative strength is deteriorating.
We are not there yet.
Right now, $TLT is testing resistance. That’s something to monitor, not something to reposition around.
The long-term bond trend has not changed. The reflation regime has not broken. Energy continues to act well.
So the plan is simple:
Respect the level. Watch the breakout attempt. Stay positioned until the data changes.
$TLT is the biggest threat to our Energy trade.
But for now, it’s just that — a threat on the radar, not a confirmed shift in regime.
Jeff Macke is hosting a live session on February 19 at 4:00 PM ET on where the next phase of the AI trade may actually show up — and it’s not in chips or software.
