From the Desk of Ian Culley 

I prefer to focus on price when analyzing markets. 

It’s what pays us at the end of the day. And it bakes in all the news and lagging economic data I tend to ignore.

A few weeks ago, I urged...

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

Markets don’t always trend higher or lower. In fact, traders often deal with churn – which sometimes is nothing more than a range-bound mess.

"Sideways" is a trend that's all too easy to forget...

From the Desk of Ian Culley

The FOMC handed down the expected 25 basis point rate hike yesterday. Yet markets didn’t react until Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke 30 minutes later.

That's right,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley

Choppy conditions prevail.

Sure, risk appetite is returning as long-duration assets catch a bid.

The ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK, Tesla $TSLA, and even the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley

It’s impossible to ignore – investors are reaching for risk.

Biotech stocks are catching higher. Copper futures are working on their tenth up-day in a row. Even the Emerging Market HY Bond ETF $EMHY is...

From the Desk of Ian Culley

If bond markets aren’t stressing, why should we be?

They’re the largest markets in the world. That’s why we constantly monitor...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Whether you’re looking across the curve or around the world, interest rates continue to rise.

Benchmark rates in Germany,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have endured quite the year.

Perhaps 2022 marks the worst on record, or at least the past 100 years. Nevertheless, we’ve all witnessed extraordinary selling pressure in what has...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley  

"Trade what’s in front of you."

We say it all the time.  And it sounds simple enough.

But, with an immense amount of information circulating, it can be difficult to distinguish what’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are flying under the radar.

While everyone focuses on the S&P 500 finding resistance at its 200-day moving average, bonds are posting their most substantial rally since the early...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

The strong US dollar and higher interest rates have dominated the conversation this year.

But the direction of the US Dollar...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are bouncing off key levels of potential support.

For some, it’s a former low. And for others, it’s a downside extension level. Regardless, we can all rejoice that bonds have stopped...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t take your eyes off the US dollar and interest rates!

I know it’s been a long year, but we’re finally witnessing...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

It’s been a lonely rise for interest rates.

The stocks and...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are an absolute dumpster fire. 

Everyone knows fixed income is having one of its worst years on record. And, from the looks...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have stopped falling across the board!

That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t catch falling knives!

It sounds simple enough. But in reality, traders continue to lose fingers as they reach for downtrending assets.

Diving after downtrends isn’t one of...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

If you can pry your eyes from the UK gilt and Credit Suisse articles, you’ll find it’s not all doom and gloom across the bond market –...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced another 75-basis-point rate hike following its September policy meeting. 

Yields across the curve...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.

Aside...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this morning, the market is pricing in an 86% chance of a 75-basis-point hike later this month. 

Meanwhile, rates continue to accelerate at...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Heading into Q3, we wanted to play a mean-reversion bounce in US treasury bonds. A long list of reasons supported this position:...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Identifying trends is one of the most important jobs of a market technician. Regardless of our time horizon, we have to understand the general direction the market is taking.

It sounds...