From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke this afternoon after the central bank announced a 25-basis-point rate hike. 

The fed funds futures were all over the place, from pricing in a 25-basis-point...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fear runs rampant across financial markets as the US Dollar Index $DXY prints fresh one-month lows.

Wait… what?

I thought the USD was a safe haven.

Perhaps it is....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What year is it? 

Is it 2023 or 2022? Because it’s starting to feel like last year all over again…

No, Will Smith hasn’t slapped anyone (that I’m aware of). And I’m...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets continue to churn sideways, frustrating most investors.

Instead of allowing the market to dictate your emotions along with the herd, let it simply highlight the path of least...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Challenging conditions prevail across currency markets. 

It’s victory at sea! 

But that’s not stopping the ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s messy out there.

The CPI data came in a little warmer than expected today. And currency markets aren’t quite sure what to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar index $DXY has some extra pep in its step after posting three consecutive daily gains.

In fact, the past few days constitute its largest three-day gain since the index...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Everyone wants to know where the dollar is headed next.

It’s great investors are showing interest in the dollar, while understanding the impact it has on risk assets at the moment. ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I haven’t ruled out a US dollar bounce. 

But it seems less likely with each passing day.

Other major...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Perhaps you’ve noticed that I don’t use moving averages.

For starters, I don’t like the way they look.

They muddy the pristine waters of price. And if I can't pick up on the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not big into seasonality.

I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price. 

Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a year for currency markets!

The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What do you do when the party gets out of hand?

You raise the roof!

That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.

Unfortunately, some of our initial...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar Index $DXY is running into support at a shelf of former highs. 

How it reacts will influence how stocks fare...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish. ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar experienced significant volatility last week, posting its largest single-day loss since 2015.

As far as we’re concerned,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

For weeks, I’ve been itching to call a top in the US Dollar Index $DXY.

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar has stopped going up!

In fact, it’s already registered a slightly lower high and lower low this past month. 

But we can’t call a top in the US dollar yet. While it...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar is dropping!

It’s finally time to bet on some sustained downside action, and the euro is my vehicle of choice.

I laid out the conditions that would flip my outlook on...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I don’t care what your favorite TikTok financial guru says: Trading isn’t easy.

The market has made this point again and again this year.

The market has also driven home another...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One of the most valuable tactics I’ve learned in my career is the ability to capture a strong trend as it’s trending. 

I’m not talking about FOMO buying or blindly chasing...