It's hard to imagine what it is that these investors are all so bearish about.

I mean, we're in the middle of a bull market, where we know historically it pays way better own stocks than to be selling them. We know. We have the data.

And yet, accordingly to the latest AAII survey, more individual investors are bearish over the next 6 months than at any point since November of 2023.

Here's what stocks have done since then:

Chinese stocks are on the move.

These Breakout Multiplier trades are all popping off one by one. 3 of them doubled today.

The Chinese Internet Index closed at its highest levels since mid-October, well before the Trump landslide victory (that was supposed to be the end of Chinese stocks).

It's actually been the exact opposite.

In fact, look Chinese Internet stocks relative to the U.S. Internet Index. The new lows could not hold, and now the face-ripper is here:

We've discussed this all year. What's the catalyst to send stocks and other risk assets ripping in the first half of the year?

It's the U.S. Dollar. 

I continue to be impressed with just how resilient stocks have been, despite the Dollar's relentless bid over the past 4-5 months.

And now here we are, with so many people crying all weekend about something they call "tariffs", and they're slamming the Dollar.

It's all happening right at the 61.8% retracement of the entire '22-'23 decline. Do you think that's a coincidence?

I do not.