From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Last night we held our August Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been our main focus as it nears the upper boundary of its recent range.

Where the USD heads next will have wide-ranging implications across asset classes by either providing a tailwind for risk assets or a headwind in the case it resolves higher from its year-to-date range.

But, as the market continues to chop sideways, we want to direct our attention to one of the most important risk gauges in the currency market.

That’s the Aussie-Yen.

In this week’s post, let’s check in on the AUD/JPY to see what information we can glean regarding risk appetite and what it could mean for other markets.

Let’s dive in.

First, we have a daily chart of the AUD/JPY:

Some stocks are going up in value.

Most stocks are not.

If there's been one theme that we keep seeing for most of the year, it's that.

Sure, some stocks are doing well. Most stocks aren't, as we discussed here.

You can really see it in the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line, as it sits at new 8-month lows:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

This is the video recording of the August 2021 Conference Call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

The goal is to catch the strongest names while they’re small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climbs the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We’re looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!

Let’s dive into this week’s report and see what’s happening in some of the hottest stocks in the Minor Leagues.

"Technician" vs "Chartist"

These are two terms that are often used interchangeably: Technician and Chartist. But many times it’s wrong to do so. You see, all chartists are technicians by definition, but not all technicians are chartists.

What is a chart?

For me, a chart is just a visual representation of the changes in equilibrium between supply and demand.

That's all it is.

We don't have to pretend it's something that it's not.

How the chartist interprets the data on the charts is where the skill and experience comes in. The chart alone won't do much for you, in the same way that a carpenter is way better at using his tools than I could ever be.

What is Technical Analysis?

To me, Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants, as opposed to the goods and the services in which a particular market deals.

We refer to the latter as "Fundamental Analysis", which we don't find helpful at all.

These are the registration details for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday August 16th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday night:

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

We came into last week wondering if we'd get follow through from Bank stocks.

I think we can all agree that we did. And not just in the U.S. but around the world.

Here are Regional Banks above those key 2018 highs:

There are few things as bullish as Regional Bank stocks acting well.

You guys know that I use Fibonacci levels to help us identify targets and manage risk.

And you've all seen it work, with your own eyes, for many years. I have too, of course, as one of the gang here calculating these levels every day.

But I've never quite understood WHY it works. How come these numbers keep showing up all over Nature. Why do the prices of stocks and other assets keep respecting these levels?

When I get asked, I don't have an answer.

But if there's anyone I'm going to ask, it's gonna be Bart. So that's what I did.

And figured why not share this with all of you?

This was a lot of fun!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley    

Rotation is the lifeblood of any bull market.

If a sustained uptrend is going to persist, then we need to have broadening participation... or at least some healthy rotation.

And that’s exactly what we're seeing within commodities right now. 

As the energy group chops sideways and base metals hang tough, we’re starting to see signs of strength from one of the worst-performing areas over the past year.

Softs.

Like livestock last week, it appears this group of commodities are ready to play catch-up as they turn the corner and head higher. 

Considering the fact that other groups are simply consolidating or correcting through time instead of price, we'd argue that this looks more like an expansion in participation rather than rotation. But it's really just semantics. It's all bullish at the end of the day. Let's dive in.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

In today's post, we’ll discuss some of our favorite and most important intermarket ratios and see what they’re suggesting for markets and risk appetite around the globe.

One thing we found interesting when digging through these charts is that many of them look a lot like stocks do right now. 

Sideways. Range-bound. Messy. But, within the context of underlying uptrends.

So these are basically just continuation patterns on shorter timeframes.

But, after consolidating for months and even quarters now, we are beginning to see some resolve higher… kind of like we’re seeing from stocks on an absolute basis.

Coincidence? Probably not.

We think this makes a lot of sense and bodes well for risk assets. Let’s take a look at some of these charts now.

Here’s one of the most important cross-asset ratios we track, and it’s a great example of exactly what we’re talking about. 

This is the stocks-versus-bonds ratio $SPY/$TLT: