The All Star Charts analyst team continues to believe that the industrial sector will be one of the leading areas to lift the market higher as sector rotation works its magic to keep this bull market going.
And the chart of Caterpillar $CAT looks like a potential failed top in the making:
If we're right, $CAT could quickly recapture all-time highs north of $382 per share and then the sky's the limit from there.
But if we expect it to continue, then we're going to need to see some rotation into some new sectors to bring fresh cash into the market and keep the wave going.
One sector that my Analysts feel has the potential to pick up the slack is Precious Metals. And the name that Steve Strazza and I discussed on today's Flow Show has the potential to ride the sector wave as well as play catch up to its big brother Gold.
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza served up the opportunity that is revealing itself in the financials space.
So we looked for some vehicles to express our bullish thesis, while being mindful of upcoming earnings releases that will be kicking of earnings season in less than two weeks.
This is no time to enter trades with undefined risk. But if we can minimize the volatility, it would be best to consider those options.
We think we have just the right idea in Morgan Stanley.
Today's trade has all the ingredients for a monster breakout. This of course is no guarantee of a win, but if we're right, the payoff will be incredibly worth the risk.
It's a bull market. No question. But that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like to add some downside diversification to my portfolio in the weakest names the stock market has to offer, just in case.
Today's short trade candidate appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially swift and brutal fall. This is as good an opportunity as I can see to help protect my portfolio in the event we see a market pullback.
If your house is anything like mine, you likely have an Amazon truck delivering packages to your doorstep at least once per week. In my neighborhood, the Amazon delivery truck does twice daily rounds. We're on a first-name basis. (His name is Henry).
Those packages have price tags attached to them. You'll find them in your credit card statements. It is likely not an insignificant line item in your monthly budget.
Today, the stock is making a move to fresh all-time highs, breaking out of a high three-month consolidation.
In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza highlighted the strength we're seeing in the homebuilders sector. I immediately liked it because I don't have any homebuilding stocks in my portfolio, which needs to be corrected.
Last week, Lennar Corp $LEN released earnings, and the market pretty much yawned. I like that. Because the other name that we liked better -- D.R. Horton $DHI -- hasn't yet released earnings (scheduled for July 18th) and unless they come out with something truly shocking, my bet is the market will be similarly unfazed. This tells me there's an opportunity to take advantage of some overpriced options premiums currently being bid into $DHI options.
We like $DHI to make a run back to all-time highs, and we want to be long the November 170 calls. But we will sell some overpriced options to help us finance the trade.
In fact, it's not even called General Electric anymore. The company is now called "GE Aerospace."
I bring this up because the analysts had a debate today on whether or not $GE stock bumping up against levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis even matter. Is it even the same company today as it was in 2008? The unequivocal answer is no -- it is not the same company.
Regardless, the only thing that really matters to us is the price action and its hard to ignore the run $GE has been on over the past eight months.
In today's episode of the Flow Show, Steve and I navigate some trade ideas that would help add bearish portfolio diversification in case the stock market wants to catch its breath this summer.
We discussed two specifically ugly charts, and we both agreed that Block Inc $SQ offers the best opportunity as an options trade.
It's "Fed Day." So I'm not interested in putting on any trades that might be material affected by any post-fed reaction. But I did find one that is trading in it's own universe, divorced from whatever may or may not come out of Washington.
This is a trade that will be hard for many people. Not hard to execute, just hard to comprehend the why?
Some people will look at the chart and be afraid of a pullback.
Some people will see that it's a $4 stock and say: "no thanks."
In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.
We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."
But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.
If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...