Today's trade is in a stock who's price action is mimicking what their products delivers for its customers -- it's going vertical! How's that for kizmet?
That trade might classify as a "hard trade," but I'll be doing what I can to increase the odds of success in my favor.
This post has been made public after the trade was closed and is no longer active. All information shared is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
As long as the pattern in today's trade holds up high, then we can profit in today's trade.
If it follows through on the upside, all the better and we'll achieve our profit target all the sooner. But as long as it doesn't falter, that's all we need to profit.
Either way, we're leveraging what the options market is offering us to increase our odds of success.
Here's a one-year chart of YPF Sociedad Anonima $YPF:
This is a $17B integrated oil & gas company from Argentina.
You guys in the chat room have been on fire lately!
I love the camaraderie that has been built among you guys and gals. The ideas, the mutual support, the multiple sets of eyes when a position needs our attention. So great.
You're all ONE! OF! US!
With this in mind, today's trade is in a name that has been discussed a few times of late in the chat. I've been waiting for a tradable support level to reveal itself, and we may be getting it right now, so let's get to it....
"First they scare 'em out, then they wear 'em out."
That's a famous old Wall Street saying. And I agree with it 100%.
In Bitcoin, the "scare" post-100K might not have been that scary (or maybe it's yet to come?), but it definitely feels like we're in the "wear 'em out" phase right now.
And my gut tells me the next move higher will catch the chasers by surprise. That's what I want to position for.
We've seen some fast moving breakouts during the recent stage of this bull market cycle.
I'm not calling for the bull market to end. In fact, I think it continues for a while longer. But its highly likely the pace of prices increases slows.
With this in mind, today's trade is the perfect kind of play for such an environment
The price of $FXI is going in the wrong direction. And as we know, only price pays. Price is truth.
Due to two previous "covered call" premium sales against our long January 2026 35-strike calls and more than one year until our long calls expire, I'm going to get creative with our position to keep the dream alive. I think we can afford to be patient.
I'm confident in doing so because ending the campaign here would only result in a small loss. So there's no panic.
Here's a visual of where we are now:
The purple circle is where I purchased both my long January 2026 calls and sold Dec 35 calls against it. The green circle shows where I rolled my Dec 35 calls to Feb 35 calls for a credit. At the moment, my net cost (max risk) for these Jan 2026 $35 calls is $2.05. This is derived by subtracting the credits for the two short call sales from the cost of the long calls.
I've still got a lot of time until January 2026, and while the chart of FXI is currently disagreeing with me, I can make time my friend. Time heals all wounds, right? We'll see.