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Pre-Election Years = 80% Hit Rate after down Mid-terms

January 4, 2023

Doing some basic math, the odds continue to favor a strong year for stocks in 2023.

There are some people out there who think the Nasdaq is the stock market. There are others who "only buy growth stocks".

I don't know what kind of masochist you need to be to think that way, but both of those are very foolish approaches to life.

The Nasdaq is full of growth stocks. And growth stocks historically underperform and make little progress when interest rates are rising. I'm not sure if you heard, but interest rates have been rising!

Since the Stock Market bottomed in June, the majority of stocks and sectors are up and to the right. It's only the biggest losers that are down, and there aren't that many of them. It's really just those nasdaq / growthy stocks that the masochists are focused on.

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Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw a nice pop in the morning and then a hard fade pretty much right after the market opened. Feels like a repeat of last year.

The market did try to hang on to the $SPX 3,800 level most of the day. It's all about this level right now; a true break below and we can see 3,780.

We need back above 3,840 for a rally higher.

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Follow the Flow (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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The Minor Leaguers (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

Swing Trader Pro: Morning Briefing (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy New Year, and welcome to 2023!

What I try to do at the start of the year is to not allow my bias cloud my judgment. I try to stay focused on price and let the market guide me. I'm not overly bullish. But I will let the market tell the story, and I will follow along.

The market is the leader, and I'm just the follower.

So, as they say, let the journey begin.

Does this trend look over to you?

January 3, 2023

For over a decade, stocks in the United States outperformed Commodities by a long shot.

In fact, Commodities underperformed for so long, that many investors even forgot that they were an asset class.

"Stocks and Bonds JC!", they would tell me.

And I would say, "No kids, it's Stocks, Bonds AND Commodities".

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The Hall of Famers (12-30-2022)

December 30, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...