The bulls have moved back into the driver seat over the past few months, as a good deal of technical damage was repaired during the summer rally.
It appears that the weakest stocks have at least stopped falling as growth indexes have transitioned to more constructive, base-building action since late Q2.
And, more recently, the strongest sectors during the current cycle have reclaimed key levels.
We’re talking about materials rallying back into their old range and energy stocks resolving above a shelf of former highs.
As both cyclical sectors are now back above our risk levels, we are looking for the strongest stocks to buy to express a bullish thesis on these groups.
When we think about the strongest stocks within materials, the coal industry and its recent resilience is top of mind.
We see no reason why the relative strength from these stocks shouldn’t continue, so let’s dive in and outline some of our favorite charts in the space.
The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by H Partners Management, which reported an $11.6 million purchase in the theme park Six Flags $SIX.
The hedge fund has a total stake of 11.50% as well as a seat on the board.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended August 19, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
New Leaders Meet Resistance
Another group that has enjoyed the recent rally has been biotech. Biotechs have been among the strongest groups since stocks rebounded off their summer lows.
As you can see in the chart, IBB is now running into a significant resistance level as prices pull back at their year-to-date pivot highs. This 133 area also coincides with key prior-cycle highs from 2015. With so much price memory here, this is a logical level for some corrective action, and that’s exactly what’s taken place since last week. We’re seeing similar price behavior in other sectors and indexes. For the most part, it is constructive as stocks have earned a breather following the rally over the past few months.