From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome to our latest Under the Hood column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended January 7, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Commodities Keep Cruising

Despite copper remaining range-bound and the CRB index stuck below its October highs from last year, our equal-weight commodity index hit fresh 8-year highs last week. This speaks to broad participation and strength among commodities, and is supportive of our view that a new commodity supercycle is upon us. This index making new highs is also excellent confirmation of the breakouts in the US 10-year yield, and energy and financial stocks. We think these areas of the market will continue to do well. Though we’re definitely not out of the woods, we are beginning to see signs that the market is finding its way. Our equal-weight commodity index at its highest level in eight years is definitely one for the bulls. After a prolonged period of consolidation in 2021, we think commodities are ready to make a fresh leg higher.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Crude oil bulls are back in town!

They kicked the year off by pushing price back above 76 and reclaiming the upper bounds of a multi-year base. Oil is the most important commodity in the world, so it’s hard to overstate just how bullish fresh seven-year highs would be. 

But we’re not quite there yet. We still need to take out the fall highs. 

The 76 level marks the former 2018 highs and the breakout from a massive reversal pattern. Buyers ran into an overwhelming amount of supply here during the back half of 2021. When they did manage to reclaim those former highs, it was short-lived, and the move quickly failed. 

But the move was more of a false start than a failed breakout. We’re back above this level again today.

Now that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat, can we expect to finally see crude oil at 100 in the coming weeks or months?

It’s very possible -- especially given one key development in recent weeks…  

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The most speculative areas of the market peaked in Q1 of 2021 and have been under pressure ever since. It’s not just IPOs and SPACs. Areas like biotech, social media, and online retail have completely fallen out of favor too.

Many of the stocks that have been selling off were among the top performers off the COVID lows in 2020. Some of these former leaders are in 60% to 70% drawdowns today.

What a difference a year can make!

Now that we’re getting closer and closer to the first rate hike, the prevailing opinion seems to be that these stocks will remain under pressure. As things currently stand, there's not much on the charts to suggest they're ready to turn things around.

On the other hand, some of these industry groups are already more than 30% off of their highs -- and that’s at the index level. Eventually, further downside would be inconsistent with the idea that stocks are in a bull market.

For the health of the overall market, we want to see these stocks stop selling off so aggressively. Despite the volatility this week, there are some signs that this is happening.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Downside pressure on long-duration rates and a flattening yield curve was the story of the bond market for the latter part of 2021. 

But we started to see signs that downside risks were easing in the final weeks of December. The 10- and 30-year yields made a nice kick save after undercutting their summer lows, and high yield bonds $HYG began to outperform safer alternatives like the Treasury bond ETF $IEI.

It seemed like the bond market was heading in the right direction – except for Treasury spreads. The 2s/10s spread was the missing piece of the puzzle, continuing to push toward new 52-week lows… 

Until now!

Only a couple of trading sessions into the new year, the bond market is providing plenty of fireworks. Rates are jumping higher across the curve, and critical treasury spreads such as 2s/10s, are following higher: 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our January Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and re-watch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The rally in the US Dollar Index $DXY is stalling out.

With each passing day, dollar internals are weakening, and the prospect of a bullish resolution from the current continuation pattern in DXY is diminishing. We expect these patterns to resolve quickly. And when they don’t, that’s information.

Some other things worth noting are that commercial hedgers hold a large short position in DXY futures and the near-term bearish trend for individual dollar crosses is expanding (up 20% from last week to a staggering 80%).

The bottom line is evidence continues to stack against the USD.

With that as our backdrop, let’s check in on a long USD trade that was triggered in November and outline how we want to navigate the coming days and weeks.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we’re doing this is simple…