From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We don't get to choose the market environment.

Like it or not, the current one is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve. And the Fed is not alone. Almost every central bank around the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

 In our cyclical portfolio, we are shifting our global equity...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: With last month’s rally behind us and the June lows quickly approaching, investor attitudes are beginning to sour. Bears on the II survey now outnumber bulls for the first...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Inflation fight being waged on a global basis
• Rate expectations have been unanchored 
...

Key Takeaway:

• Thrust but verify.
• Fed up with higher rates...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This week’s upside surprise in inflation is raising the stakes for next week’s FOMC meeting. While the 10-year T-Note yield is still just below its June peak, yields at the shorter-end of the curve...

This is the video recording of the September 15th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/15/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Something was getting into our grapes. 

That much we knew. We could see the evidence in the mess under our arbor every morning. Our dog was also aware of its presence. But we didn’t know...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: The bulls have some heavy lifting as bears pack on the pounds. Yes, last week was impressive, as was the summer rally. But questions about sustainability remain. After all,...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Labor market imbalances are fueling a persistent rise in inflation
• Median CPI hitting new highs...

Key Takeaway:

• Getting back to “Yes” on our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist still requires some heavy lifting.
...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Inflation data has overtaken jobs data as the economic indicator that seems to generate the most interest every month and next week’s CPI report will be no different. But seeing inflation just from a...

This is the video recording of the September 8th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/08/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Despite the stock market’s reluctance toward sustained advances, investors have refused to throw in the towel. The bulls showed up last month, declaring their intent by...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

After reviewing the Cyclical Portfolio, we are making the active...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The late-July breadth thrust provides a breadth thrust regime that lasts for a year (or more if we get additional breadth thrusts between now and mid-2023). In such an environment, near-term oversold...

This is the video recording of the September 1st, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/01/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The first eight months of the year have been a grind. 

A mid-month reversal in August took the S&P 500 from a 4% gain to 4% loss for the month and the early breadth and momentum thrusts...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: In July, consumer expectations for stocks dropped to their lowest level since March 2009.  Excessive optimism is clearly not an issue for stocks right here. But bulls need...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Thrust signals are typically reliable indicators of strength
• Lack of risk appetite and rising...

Key Takeaway:

• Powell’s tough talk justified by incoming inflation data.
...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Fighting inflation is job number one for the Fed right now. Jerome Powell made that crystal clear in his remarks from Jackson Hole on Friday. He discussed the deleterious effects of inflation and the...