Yesterday, we saw large gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Averages. While I would've preferred to see these big rallies come on overwhelming high volume that far exceeds the average, we did close on an increase in volume, which technically qualifies as a "follow-through day."
While this isn't a guarantee that we've seen the bottom of recent price action, it does add some credence to the idea that the recent lows may be a little more durable and hold for a while.
If the market turn is here, then now would be a good time to take some fliers on previously high-flying names that took a dip with everything else in the recent morass.
With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."
We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.
I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.
How could it?
When D.C. can’t get its act together, Wall Street feels it.
I’ve seen it happen more times than I care to count: confusion out of the White House sets off a chain reaction that ripples all the way down to public company earnings—and right into your portfolio.
It starts with poor policy direction or, worse, unclear communication. When nobody really knows what the administration’s long-term plan is (or if there even is one), businesses get stuck. It’s not just annoying for executives—it’s paralyzing. You can’t confidently launch a new product line, expand into new regions, or hire that next wave of talent if you don’t know whether the...
With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."
We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.
I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.
Wow. This conversation with Trading Psychologist Andrew Menaker covered so much meaningful ground — if you’re a trader who’s serious about leveling up, emotionally and mentally, this one is a must-listen.
Here are just a few of the highlights we explored:
🔹 Intention vs. Expectations – We talked about the subtle but critical difference between trading with intention versus trading with expectation. Intention keeps you grounded in process and presence, while expectations often drag you into attachment, disappointment, and emotional volatility. They may look similar, but they feel very different — and the difference matters.
🔹 Intuition as a Signal – One of the most powerful themes was learning to identify and trust your own intuition. Not as a mystical force, but as a reflection of your accumulated pattern...
So, we’re well off the highs in the VIX—but a 30-handle is still considered elevated by historical standards.
Why does that matter?
VIX above 30 typically signals that there’s still plenty of undigested stress and uncertainty swirling around in the markets. It tells us that fear hasn’t fully cleared, and the waters are still too choppy for comfort. Historically, when VIX is at these levels, it’s often during periods of heightened news-driven volatility, unclear macro narratives, or disorderly price action.
And more importantly—for me, at least—it signals that taking anything other than shorter-term trades can be problematic. Swing trades that might normally take weeks to play out can get chopped up or invalidated in hours. Markets at these volatility levels are unforgiving to those who overstay their welcome.
This is the market we have, and we have to trade it as it is, not as we wish it would be.
In today’s Options Jam Session, I cover this in more depth—along with a great teaching moment from two recent trades that moved in opposite directions. Both trades used variations of a calendar/diagonal spread strategy, and the contrasting...
Well, now that the bounce feels like it's running out of a little steam, it's time to scan the universe of stocks that have been underperforming and had tepid bounces (at best) during this week's counter-trend rally.
Today's stock is one of the laggards in the semiconductors space.
Last week, I floated a thought: I wouldn’t be surprised if we soon saw an executive order banning short selling coming out of the White House:
Well, it hasn’t happened—at least not in the official, legislative sense. But today my friend Howard Lindzon tweeted something that really hit the nerve I was feeling:
This begs the question: Has Trump essentially implemented a “shadow ban” on short selling, just by threatening to tweet?
Think about it.
We’ve seen this movie before. In 2008, during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis, regulators issued a temporary ban on short selling for 799 financial stocks. It was a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding and restore confidence in the system. But the results were questionable at best. Liquidity dried up. Volatility spiked. And many argued that the move did more harm than good by signaling panic.
Other countries have tried similar moves over the years—especially during periods of extreme stress. France, Italy, Spain, and South Korea all...
As of the time I'm writing this (1pm MT), the VIX has been trading back below 30:
While this doesn't mean the coast is clear and the bull market is set to resume, it does signal the extreme fear that exploded last week has subsided as market participants have had time to digest all the headlines and manage risks.
In today's Flow Show, I flew solo and I laid out the latest on the put spread selling campaign I've been executing in $QQQ options since last Wednesday.
I discuss why I implemented the campaign, how it's going so far, and what the next steps are in managing these trades now that $VIX is back below 30:
Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts
I was asked in the All Star Options chat room this afternoon what I thought about this? My answer was that I don't put much stock in an indicator like this. In my selective memory, I feel like I've seen ominous headlines about "death crosses" in the past and they most amounted to much ado about nothing, ultimately.
But again, this might be selective memory.
Here's what's changing my mind... my guy Grant Hawkridge published an interesting piece about this topic today. In it, he says:
"Some people may place limited emphasis on the Death Cross pattern because it is often considered a lagging indicator. However, historical data suggests that if the short-term moving average remains below the long-term moving average, it could pose challenges for stocks moving forward.
I have done the math, and the results are bearish for the stock market…
On average, the S&P 500 has poor performance over the next 1 to 3 months.
Is this the kind of environment where we want to invest our capital? The impact on stocks in the near future...
Since volatility picked up in early March, I’ve found that shorter-term trades have really started to shine.
Take a look at this snapshot of my recent trades in All Star Options:
With only a couple of exceptions, nearly every trade I’ve put on lately has had no more than two months until expiration—and the majority are even shorter than that.
Why?
Because when the market starts acting like it’s had too much coffee and not enough sleep, long-dated trades become harder to trust. Shorter-duration setups, on the other hand, let me be nimble. I can lean into fast-moving setups, take my profits (or manage risk quickly), and move on.
And it’s working.
These quicker-turn trades have noticeably increased my win rate and put some much-needed green back into the account—right when the broader market has been having a bit of a meltdown.
A few things to note in the above screenshot:
The green rows are completed trades that hit profit targets or closed with gains.
The red ones, obviously, are stop-outs for losses.
The white rows are still open positions—but most are...
Since there seems to have been a bit of confusion about the $QQQ campaign that I embarked upon back on Wednesday, I'm creating a new post to help make new trades clearer for you all.
So far this AM, I've closed one of our put spreads at my profit target, and I'm adding a new one.