From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Check out the iShares Silver Trust ETF $SLV retesting a critical former support level at approximately 20.50:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metal charts aren’t painting a bullish picture for investors.

Silver is underperforming gold. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX is posting new all-time lows versus the broader market. And everywhere you look, individual gold mining stocks are breaking down.

Well, not all mining stocks. One chart continues to fly high…

Check out Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN:

BVN has gained over 70% since bouncing off last month’s lows, slicing through our initial and secondary targets. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…

Check out GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY: 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar is marching higher, stomping gold mining stocks into dust.

Harmony $HMY, Kinross $KGC, and Eldorado Gold $EGO are hovering just above last month’s breakout levels.

And Franco Nevada $FNV –  a secular leader among royalty companies – is sliding toward fresh multi-year lows!

Check out FNV undercutting a shelf of former lows:

I’m not crazy about shorting it. But you can’t own FNV below its 2022 lows at approximately 110.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

A risk-off tone is blanketing the precious metal space as a key data point suggests more pain ahead…

Silver is underperforming gold.

Check out silver undercutting a shelf of former lows relative to gold:

The breakdown signals a lack of interest or risk-seeking behavior in the higher-beta vehicle.

When silver fails to catch a relative bid, the entire precious metals space tends to follow. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The first day of trading is full of uncertainty and excitement. 

Aren’t they all!

Yet the new year brings one promise: events that have yet to come.

As corny as it sounds, it’s true.

Sure, precious metal bulls see new all-time highs for gold on the horizon.

I’m right there with them.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves on day one.

Instead, let’s start the year with a long-term chart of gold…

Here’s a monthly candlestick chart zoomed out roughly 30 years:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The buzz around gold’s new all-time high is growing – and for good reason.

New all-time highs will likely become a regular occurrence in the coming quarters. 

But while gold makes headlines, my attention is on silver mining stocks…

Check out the Silver Miners ETF $SIL carving out a potential double bottom:

SIL is printing fresh six-month highs as it trades back above its June peak.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve had palladium on my mind for a while – long before gold posted a new all-time high.

Why palladium?

It all started with an extreme Commitment of Traders (COT) profile…

Check out the longer-term chart of palladium futures with the COT in the lower pane:

Commercial hedgers posted a new record-long position back in April.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week’s fresh all-time highs left many gold bugs empty-hearted. 

The market continues to torment precious metal bulls as they wonder what could have been.

But hopes and dreams aren’t a viable strategy.

The only “what if” that concerns me is whether the yellow metal flashed a failed breakout.

Or are we simply dealing with a a premature move?

Let’s dig in…

Check out the weekly chart of gold futures, highlighting the breakout in question:

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

We’ve been all over this one.

Two weeks ago, we couldn’t help but discuss the impressive move out of the silver/gold ratio, pointing to risk appetite in the precious metals space.

Now, gold’s crazy little cousin is pressing up against new 52-week highs.

Just check out the chart of BlackRock’s Silver ETF $SLV rallying into this key inflection point near 23:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are breaking out.

All four names we outlined in last week’s Gold Rush Video have triggered buy signals.

The tide appears to swing in favor of the gold bugs.

And, based on Monday’s bullish price action, perhaps it’s just the beginning.

Check out the next gold miner most likely to break loose…

Eldorado Gold $EGO is carving out a classic inverted head-and-shoulders pattern:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The wait is over.

Goldbugs, rejoice.

Silver has finally found its dancing shoes!

Will it stop there? No one knows. 

But, based on last week’s price action, gold’s crazy cousin may have slipped into party mode…

Check out silver bouncing higher relative to gold:

The entire precious metals space – and interested bystanders worldwide – have eagerly awaited such a display of relative strength.