In last week’s letter, we argued that a once-crowded bullish sentiment had cooled down in a bull market reset. We also put forward the case that crypto markets were at an inflection point between capitulation or reacceleration. Over the last week, we’ve seen Bitcoin sharply rally to the high 40,000s, indicating that this period of consolidation is ending with an upward resolution.

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

As crypto markets continue to churn sideways following the Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, positioning data suggests a once-crowded consensus bullish sentiment has cooled down. This comes within the context of Bitcoin retesting its long-term resistance level near 46,000. It’s within these periods that excessive positioning and sentiment calms down and allows the market to recalibrate for its next move.

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

What can we say?

Bitcoin's absorbing overhead supply.

Our first target was 25,000, and it got hit.

Now we wait.

It's vital to not let the day-to-day price action drive our execution. It's driven by nothing but emotion, and it does more harm to investors than good.

We all know this. But it can be difficult to step back when necessary.

Objectively speaking, one of the many elements that differentiate great investors from mediocre ones is the ability to sit out of the market when there are no high-conviction opportunities.

One of our simple workarounds to this constant desire to be positioned is to set our invalidations and targets prior to putting money on the line.

People, you know how much we talk about relative strength in these parts.

No matter the attention we give it, we always underestimate its efficacy in financial markets. We talked all about this last week.

When it comes to leadership in this market, it's impossible to ignore Lido DAO $LDO.

Last week, most crypto markets saw moderate selling pressure following retests of critical levels of resistance.

At the same time, momentum is diverging in a bearish fashion, with our indicators putting in lower highs on this most recent high in price action.

Further, equity markets have begun to feel the pressure after selling off on a retest of resistance levels.

We'd previously noted that Bitcoin and equity indices had briefly decoupled on short time frames, pointing to resiliency on the part of crypto markets.

Last week, we saw this correlation return, with Bitcoin being dragged lower by selling pressure in risk markets generally.

This is the video recording of our February 24, 2023, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Equities had their worst session of the year yesterday, as the S&P 500 retraced 2% during the day.

This comes as rates and the US dollar push higher, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note making fresh three-month highs.

Surprisingly, Bitcoin seems to be bucking this recent selling pressure, and the short-term correlations between stocks and Bitcoin have flipped negative for the first time since the FTX fiasco.

During that period, Bitcoin crashed to its cycle lows of 16,000, while equity markets were hammering out their most recent bottom.

We're seeing more breakouts as the weeks go by.

And we're not talking about the kind of random pumps-and-dumps that happened throughout last year.

It's quite the opposite, actually.

Many coins have gone absolutely nowhere for quarters and are only now beginning to test the upper bounds of these long-term ranges.

Although this period has been incredibly lackluster in the number of directional trade ideas, the flipside is that many coins have had ample time to carve out long-term bases.

Like we always argue around here, we're better served by keeping it simple.

If this is truly the beginning stage of a new crypto bull market, buying resolutions out of these basing patterns will be a great strategy for the months and quarters ahead.