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The Timeless Edge: How Trend Following Has Dominated Markets for Centuries

March 9, 2025

From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works—and why it always will.

For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets—chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the crowd. Meanwhile, the only strategy that actually worked was the simplest one: Follow the trend.

Nobody wanted to believe it. Trend following felt too passive, too reactive. Human nature prefers action, control, and the illusion of certainty. But markets don’t reward ego. They reward discipline.

The Unspoken Truth of Early Trading

Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism.

In the 1900s, the most powerful traders—Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore—moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big players.

This wasn’t...

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(Commodities Weekly) What the Lumber Market is Telling Us 📊🪵

March 7, 2025

Stock market bulls have been watching the homies like hawks. 

It's a vital industry right now.

Alfonso recently wrote about the Home Construction ETF $ITB breaking to new lows relative to its defensive peer group, the Real Estate ETF $IYR.

He said, "This ratio has historically been a leading indicator for the broader market. During prior cycles, you can see clear divergences where ITB/IYR tops or bottoms ahead of major turns in the S&P 500." 

See the chart for yourself. The data doesn't lie. 

If the equity bull market in the United States is going to continue, this group cannot complete a massive top.

Here's the setup that everyone is watching 👇

The homies are hangin' on by a thread: 

As you can see, the iShares U.S. Home Construction Index $ITB has carved out a prolonged potential distribution pattern. 

The index...

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[Gold Rush] This Precious Metals Bull Market Just Hit Its First Anniversary 🥳

March 3, 2025

This precious metals bull market will turn 1 year old on Tuesday.

Can you believe it? 

Gold futures resolved a multi-decade basing pattern on March 4th, 2024.

We've had a blast riding the shiny yellow metal higher and made a ton of money along the way.

The cycle has had its ups and downs, no doubt about it.

But when we zoom out and analyze the long-term trends, it's clear what environment we're in. A raging bull market!

Buyers are being rewarded, and sellers are being penalized. This is what happens in uptrends.

Let's take a moment to step back and assess our progress over the last year.

Check out this performance chart 👇
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(Commodities Weekly) Dry Bulk Shipping: Charting the Next Big Wave 📊🌊

February 28, 2025

A lot is happening right now.

The bears are destroying Orange Juice futures, while Coffee futures are at an all-time high. Soft commodities are super bifurcated at the moment.

The entire agricultural commodity complex is shaping up quite nicely. Corn and Soybean futures look poised to lead the way higher.

We're also seeing China's economy roar back to life. Steve's Breakout Multiplier system has been crushing it...

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[Gold Rush] Palladium: When Moon? ⏳🚀

February 24, 2025

We've been discussing the odds favoring shiny rocks outperforming stocks for the foreseeable future. 

It's what happens in every precious metals bull market.

Another classic in these cycles is for the mining stocks to outperform gold. We think this is about to happen. 

In addition, we expect the entire precious metals complex to move explosively. We haven't seen this yet, but we're anticipating it.

The setup in palladium futures looks as juicy as anything in the market.

Check out this chart of palladium 👇
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(Commodities Weekly) Soft Commodities: The Most Bifurcated Commodity Complex 📈📉

February 21, 2025

We've been obnoxiously bullish on soft commodities recently. 

And it's for a good reason. 

Coffee just broke out of a nearly 50-year basing pattern. It's hard to bearish when the price is making new all-time highs.

But the group is becoming bifurcated.

Orange juice futures were the early leader in the soft space. The price made a new all-time high in 2022.

Unfortunately (for the bulls), the uptrend in OJ seems to be over, at least for now.

Check out this quarter's candlestick 👇 

As you can see, orange juice futures resolved a nearly 50-year basing pattern in 2022. This pattern is almost identical to coffee futures. ...

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[Gold Rush] The Seasonal Sweet Spot: Why Junior Miners Are a Buy Right Now 📊⚒️

February 17, 2025

In true commodity supercycles, shiny yellow rocks outperform stocks.

Last week, we outlined why we thought buying gold and selling stocks was a good idea. If you haven't had a chance, you can check out that post.

But that's not it.

We've also been pounding the table on how bullish we are on the precious metal mining stocks. They're testing a key level of polarity relative to gold futures. 

This is the level where the miners begin to outperform gold.

We're also heading into the sweet spot for junior gold mining stocks based on seasonality. 

Here's the seasonal trend 👇
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(Commodities Weekly) Grab Your Popcorn, Folks: This Commodity is Breaking Out📈🍿

February 14, 2025

February is historically one of the best months of the year for commodities. This year is no different.

Coffee is like a freight train. It keeps chugging along to new all-time highs

Natural gas has rallied over 20% so far this month.

Dr. Copper is challenging a key level of interest and flirting with a multi-decade base breakout.

But what continues to stand out the most to us is the grain markets.

Last week, we outlined why we're buying...

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[Gold Rush Video] The Dollar’s Decline: Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle

February 11, 2025

The U.S. dollar is getting slammed, and gold bugs around the world are rejoicing.

In honor of this development, we just went live on YouTube to talk about it.

We discussed the extreme position in the foreign exchange markets and the implications of a weaker dollar.

In addition, we talked about what areas we believe stand to benefit most from this (hint, hint, we talked a lot about commodities).

Check it out 👇 

If you want to get our actionable trade ideas on gold, gold stocks, and other precious metals, join ASC Gold Rush today.

-Sam & Jason 

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[Gold Rush] Here's Why We're Buying Gold & Selling Stocks 📊

February 10, 2025

Gold futures keep screaming higher to new all-time highs.

It has also rallied over 100% relative to the broader commodity complex.

But what the shiny yellow metal hasn't done this cycle is outperform stocks. We think that's about to change in a major way and here's why.

Gold is flirting with new multi-year highs relative to the S&P 500 👇
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(Commodities Weekly) February is a Great Month for Commodities: Here's What We're Buying 📊🧑‍🌾

February 7, 2025

Commodities are catching a serious bid right now.

Coffee futures have resolved a nearly 50-year base, printing fresh all-time highs.

Base and industrial metals keep screaming higher as the Chinese economy strengthens. 

This is all happening at a time when commodities are supposed to be strong.

February is one of the best months of the year for commodities: 

As you can see, February has historically been an excellent month for owning commodities. The only better month is April, and the difference is marginal.

Will this be another strong February? We think so!

We told you we were buying fertilizer stocks a few weeks ago. ...