Currency Report: The 3 Strikes for The Dollar Trade

Trends are shifting. 

Risk assets are moving into risk-off territory, and it’s in environments like this where risk management separates tourists from traders, gamblers from speculators.

We’ve been focused at the same levels for months because they matter. They’re the lines in the sand that have guided our ex-US positioning.

Now the risk is simple — but serious. 

A Dollar breakout at the same time Emerging Markets fail. That combination can quickly turn an orderly pullback into something much sharper.

This market has proven it can move faster than anyone expects. It’s been choppy and whipsaw-driven, but the character is changing. Rallies are getting weaker. Selloffs are gaining momentum. And now major indexes are completing tops.

That’s not the kind of environment where you press bets aggressively. It’s where you prioritize risk first.