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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Charts of the Week

December 4, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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The Hall of Famers (12-03-2021)

December 3, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Don’t Sweat This Commodity Correction

December 3, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Risk assets are under pressure.

Failed breakouts and significant retracements have materialized across cyclical areas of the market, including the Russell 2000, the energy and financial sectors, and, of course, commodities.

The energy complex has endured the most severe damage in the commodities realm, with crude oil leading the pack lower. Last Friday’s session was a bruiser, with crude dropping $10 to close out the week.

This kind of volatility can be alarming for any investor.

But when we zoom out--as we like to to at the end of each month--and focus on commodities as a whole, two key takeaways come to the forefront: 

  1. The underlying uptrend is still intact.
  2.  A period of digestion within the ongoing trend is well deserved. 

Let’s take a look at a couple commodity indexes and try to put the recent action into perspective.

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Stocks? Bonds? Or Both?

December 3, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

It's been about a month since small- and mid-caps resolved to the upside and made fresh highs.

As we all are aware, these were simply massive head-fakes. We're right back to where we started--stuck in the middle of the same range we've been in all year.

There was also plenty of evidence from our intermarket relationships and ratios to support these moves. Discretionary-versus-staples ratios broke to fresh highs. Copper versus gold. Stocks versus bonds. Inflation expectations. They all made new highs recently. But, just like most stocks on an absolute basis, many of these breakouts have since failed.

Of all these developments, it's hard to argue that any is more important than the stocks-versus-bonds ratio retracing back beneath its Q1 highs. With long rates making new lows and stocks selling off, let's talk about how we are approaching both of these asset classes right now.

Here's the S&P 500 $SPY relative to long-term Treasury bonds $TLT, zoomed out to the early 2000s.

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Checking in on New Lows

December 2, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Breakouts and breadth expansion kicked off the month of November. 

But the market had other ideas... 

Instead of fresh legs higher, investors were dealt a handful of downside reversals and failed moves. Last week, we went from discussing breakouts and new highs for stocks... to throwbacks and retests of old ranges. This all happened in the matter of a few trading sessions.

A lot has changed in a short period. In times like these, it’s important to take a good look under the hood to see what market internals are suggesting.

As we reviewed our breadth chartbook today, we asked ourselves the following questions: 

Are we seeing a notable expansion in new lows? Is it enough that we should be worried?

Let’s take a look beneath the surface and see if we can find some answers!

First, let’s check in on the 21-day and 63-day lows for the S&P 500:

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The Short Report (12-01-2021)

December 1, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions... but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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Treasury Spreads Tank

December 1, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Treasury yield spreads are contracting.

Inflation has been the talk of the town in recent weeks. But, now that the Federal Reserve has finally joined the chorus, the market seems to be headed in a different direction. At least over the near term.

Short rates are holding up just fine, but the longer end of the curve has been under serious pressure.

We’ve been closely monitoring long-duration rates for signs of further weakness. As we write, the 30-year is violating its summer lows, and the 10-year is testing a critical level of interest around 1.40%.

The bulls really need these levels to hold. If they don't, we’d better get used to the recent volatility--because it’s likely to get worse.

Let’s take a deeper look!

This is a weekly chart of the US 10-year yield:

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Commodity-Centric Currencies Slide

November 30, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

As we near the close of another month, crude oil is once again front and center.

At the end of October, black gold was ripping to new seven-year highs while interest rates rose and cyclical stocks kicked back into gear. 

Today, this picture has dramatically changed. 

Crude oil is currently about 20% off its highs, as prices have collapsed back below our risk level.

Crude dropped $10 during last Friday’s volatile session and continues to slide lower this week. Just look at this bearish candlestick on the monthly chart:

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Follow The Flow (11-29-2021)

November 29, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

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Under The Hood (11-29-2021)

November 29, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended November 26, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.