Are you noticing the relative strength in Emerging Markets? That is NOT something we would expect to see if the world was actually coming to an end.
I can't stress this enough, stay away from the glorified gossip columns. They know less than nothing. You know who knows? The market. So that's where we'll get our data.
Think about it like this, there are more people and firms with more money and better intelligence than any of these governments, communist or otherwise. Are you actually going to trust the propaganda being put out in the "news"?
Or do you trust the people putting actual money behind the information they're spending a fortune to get? When we want to know what's really going on, we turn to the markets. The rest is pure junk.
For now, we're in an environment where we want to be buying stocks. We want to be incredibly disciplined with our risk levels, probably more than usual, but buying stocks nonetheless.
We're buying a few Chinese Internet Stocks. If the world isn't ending after all, this could be an interesting place to look for huge winners. I'm already seeing relative strength there.
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
There is a lot going on in the market right now, not just in the U.S. but globally. The intermarket relationships between Bonds, Gold and the US Dollar are having a major impact on equities.
January is a month that gives us a lot more information than most other months throughout the year. We have the data now that we can use to help us identify primary trends.
Volatility is picking up. Daily swings are getting larger. I've seen this story before.
We'll discuss all of this and a lot more on Monday evening.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday February 10th at 7PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with all of the other calls since 2015.
Today I have a group of charts that I think will help me explain my thought process here. We're keeping this very simple.
Let's go!
The first thing that stands out is the breakout to new all-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that has not yet been confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This rejection in January and failure to exceed those former highs is worrisome. If this market was as strong as some of the other indicators have/had been pointing to, then we should have seen a breakout by now. Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Avg:
Click on Charts to Zoom in
And here is the Dow Jones Transportation Average getting rejected hard last month:
This long weekend we had more time to take a step back and think about the things that are currently going on in the market. A big theme that stuck with us was the strength in stocks in the Utilities sector. The question was/is whether this strength in higher dividend paying stocks is evidence that rates are about to fall? Or is there such an overwhelming amount of strength in the stock market, that Utilities are just included in the rally?
But sometimes I think we just need to pay attention to what's right in front of us, which in this case is Utilities stocks going higher. So why don't we just buy utility stocks and not worry about the bond market for a hot minute? The most bullish thing a stock can do is go up. And that's exactly what's happening here.
This week's talk of the town is how Financials, particularly Regional Banks, are rolling over relative to the rest of the market at a faster rate than the Yield Curve is rolling over.
While that's certainly something worth noting, Financials as a group don't really become that interesting until they break out to new all-time highs.
Instead, I think the focus should be on the Broker-Dealers & Exchanges ETF (IAI) as it presses up against all-time highs of its own.
Let's take a look at what's happening.
Here's the Broker-Dealers & Exchanges ETF (IAI) holding well above its 2007 highs after a successful breakout retest in January 2019. Today, prices are pushing back up against their 2018 highs as momentum approaches overbought territory on the weekly chart, confirming the strength of buyers. From a structural perspective, there's not a lot to dislike here.
Let me take you back to simpler times back in 2006 when you used to hear things like, "Real Estate only goes up" and "God only made so much land". Heck, you may have even said those things yourself.
But it was the brilliant market timers at the ETF companies that really stole the show. The iShares U.S. Home Construction Fund $ITB launched on May 1, 2006, and here's what it did immediately after that:
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF $XHB launched on January 31, 2006, and here's what it did immediately after that:
This is a quick follow-up to our last two posts on Canada (September 16 & December 10), updating our views and adding any new trade ideas for today's environment.
The US Stock Market Indexes are all hitting new highs. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who reads the work we put out.
Isn't it nice when we just let the data dictate our actions?
Good music and clean charts. It works.
So today we're going to focus on a new sector that I think is just getting started: Industrials. Take a look at the fresh breakout from its 2018-2019 consolidation:
Click on charts to zoom in
See how this one is resolving? Consolidations tend to resolve themselves in the direction of the underlying trend. This one here is apparently no different.