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Update on Our Short Positions

February 10, 2024

We're shorting bank stocks now too.

More details on that below.

But first...

Breaking News: "Dow Futures fell 100 points and the VIX rose this Friday on news of new all-time highs for the stock market"

The breadth continues to deteriorate with every week that goes by.

You notice?

You can see it in our trades as well. While the puts on our $SPY and $QQQ haven't started to work yet, the bearish trades on individual stocks are all either working or flat.

It's interesting. What you see in happening in the portfolio, you can also see happening in the market itself.

We saw new all-time highs this week for the S&P500. But we had the fewest stocks in the S&P500 above their 200 day moving average since December. And the fewest above their 50 day moving average since November.

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The Hall of Famers (02-09-2024)

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

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How to Trade Energy’s Seasonal Tailwind 

February 9, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to turn our attention to the energy space.

The same market conditions that favored energy in Q3 of last year are brewing. 

Interest rates are rising. King Dollar is refusing to step aside.

And energy contracts – especially crude oil – are entering a historically strong period of the year.

Check out crude oil’s seasonality since 1984: 

February kicks off the strongest four-month period of the year.

Meanwhile, energy contracts are forming potential bullish reversals.

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The Short Report (02-07-2024)

February 8, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making new highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that exhibit the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

However, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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How to Profit From a Rising Dollar

February 6, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar reigns supreme, and its near-term rally shows no sign of slowing.

What can you do about it? 

You can profit from it.

Today, I’ll share with you three tactical setups for dollar strength. And they’re all close to triggering.

But, before I outline the trades, let’s look at the relationship between the dollar and stocks…

Last night, Alfonso dropped a stellar chart in Slack of the US Dollar Index $DXY overlaid with Consumer Staples $XLP relative to the S&P 500 $SPY:

The chart supports the inverse relationship between stocks and the US dollar that’s been in place for almost a decade.

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Under the Hood (02-05-2024)

February 6, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended February 2, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

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Silver Toes the Line

February 6, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

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International Hall of Famers (02-02-2024)

February 2, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Sick of Whipsaws? Hogs Can Help

February 2, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures: