From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Searching for trending markets?

Look no further than US treasury bonds!

Bonds across the curve are skidding to fresh contract lows as interest rates have a one-track mind…

Higher!

Check out the US 10-year yield posting fresh sixteen-year highs:

Not to be outdone, the 2-year yield just registered its highest level in seventeen years.

Interest rates across the curve are breaking to decade-plus highs in what has become a foot race.

It’s clear that the rising rate environment remains alive and well. An inverted yield curve keeps score, reminding us that shorter-duration yields are winning. 

But I honestly don’t care what area of the curve is leading. 

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers beware! 

The US Dollar Index $DXY is kicking ass and taking names.

The dollar has ripped higher ever since the July failed breakdown.

It’s now challenging fresh six-month highs and a critical former resistance area. 

An upside resolution for King Dollar will undoubtedly pressure risk assets – not the ideal scenario for stock market bulls.

And the dollar rally has plenty of room to run if the DXY is a reliable indicator...

Check out the number of consecutive up-weeks in the lower pane of the US Dollar Index chart:

This is the video recording of the September 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals represent an opportunity cost.

The entire complex – gold, silver, platinum, and palladium – has gone nowhere for the past few years.

Yet I can’t overlook the resilience of gold and silver as interest rates and the US dollar rise – two significant headwinds for these shiny rocks. 

Perhaps they deserve the benefit of the doubt.  

I believe they do.

But extending these lackluster metals with a favorable outlook does not equate to taking a long position.

It’s far from it.

Price must prove buying precious metals offers a rewarding proposition.

The following two intermarket ratios will undoubtedly rise if and when it does.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 15, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bears and tech bros are whining in the corner as energy outperforms.

Haters can hate all they want…

Energy marks the spot when it comes to stocks.

Spencer and I discussed it on Wednesday’s “What the FICC?” episode, highlighting the absolute and relative uptrends across the space.

Energy is clearly resuming a leadership role in stock and commodity markets. But crude oil isn’t the only commodity exhibiting strength.

Cattle are ripping higher, too!

Check out the daily chart of live cattle futures:

Live cattle are breaking out of a multi-month consolidation, printing new all-time highs.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets fluctuate to a relentless beat driven by fear, greed, and an incessant newsfeed.

Sometimes, they trend. 

But, more often than not, they churn sideways.

Unsurprisingly, “sideways” best describes most markets today.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone nowhere in three months. 

Regardless, one uptrend remains intact…

The coordinated rise in the US dollar and interest rates.

Check out the overlay chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX and the US Dollar Index $DXY with a 21-day rolling correlation in the lower pane:

US yields and the dollar have been in near-perfect harmony since the Fed began raising interest rates last year.

Sure, they briefly fell out of step. But the two found their groove in early July.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn’t be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if the price is rising. That’s good enough for us.