Am I being creative with my trading?

Am I tinkering with new ideas, new money management algorithms, new mindsets, new products, new timeframes, or new workflows?

We don’t need to be trying all new things all the time. But spending time thinking about divergent ideas is a valuable practice.

When we exercise our creative muscles, we might find nothing other than a journey down an empty rabbit hole. But sometimes, we have epiphany moments that change the way we operate. These can be minor, value-added ways – or maybe even drastic, wholesale change kinds of ways.

The concept of “Tilt” is often discussed when things have gone awry. It’s usually associated with poor risk management and sloppy trading that has led to larger-than-expected losses.

You can no doubt find endless stories of traders in every timeframe who have gone on tilt and proceeded to wreck their month, their capital, and sometimes even their careers.

We’ve all experienced some degree of this in our own trading. It comes with the territory. It takes a rare human who possesses the mental fortitude to stay completely focused no matter what’s happening to their portfolio. Those people are out there – but they’re hard to find.

The downsides of going on tilt when our trades or strategies aren’t working out are fairly obvious.

But we rarely talk about when we go on tilt with a winning position!

Well, that was fun!

Yesterday we were treated to the latest interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and a speech and Q&A with Fed Chairman Powell that apparently wasn't well received by the market as stocks slid furiously into the closing bell and continued the selloff into this morning.

Where we go from here is anyone's guess. Still, I'd like to take the opportunity to continue taking advantage of consistently elevated options premiums and put on a delta-neutral credit spread in an area of the market where I think some sideways rangebound action may be setting up into the end of the year.

How do I measure performance?

In a nutshell, this is a question I received from a member of the All Star Charts community today.

Well, it depends. 

The short and obvious answer: I trade to make money. 

If I’m making money, good. If I’m not, bad.

Of course, there are also more nuanced answers and considerations – some more relevant than others. They come down to relative performance.

How great it is that we can change our minds and take decisive action immediately?

As traders in the financial markets, if our spidey senses detect that something is amiss or conditions have changed, we can often liquidate our positions and head safely into cash with just a few keystrokes on our computer. Depending on the size of our positions, we can be completely in cash within minutes, maybe even seconds!

You can’t do that with Real Estate.

You certainly can’t do that with Private Equity investments.

You definitely can’t do that with a small business.

All of those investments are fine for their own reasons. But they don’t offer us the opportunity to immediately exit if we change our minds.

Of course, just because we can change our minds on a dime doesn’t mean we always should. If we’re wishy-washy and trading without a plan, it becomes incredibly easy to overtrade and drive our commission bills and nerves through the roof. While this might make us popular at our broker’s office, our accountants will unlikely be pleased.

We continue to be handcuffed by earnings season. Some of the best setups we like right now are in stocks slated to announce earnings over the next week or two. As an options trader, I don't like to position ahead of imminent earnings announcements. That is tough binary risk to control.

Today's trade has earnings coming up in a little over a month from now, so that'll have to do. At least it gives us some time to build a little cushion. Because if we're wrong in this trade, it's likely we'll find out pretty quickly over the next two weeks.

I was talking with a relatively new day trader last night at my twice-monthly trader meetups here in Colorado. We were chatting about stop losses. Or more specifically, his inability to stick to his “mental stop loss levels.”

As you can imagine, this was leading to him taking occasional big losses – which were wiping out good runs in the market.

He’d make a few hundred bucks several days in a row. He’d then lose it all (and then some) on one bad trade.

A lightbulb went off in his head when I reframed the importance of not taking big losses. No doubt many of you are shaking your heads and uttering – duh!

But for this gentleman, it took me breaking it down this way for him to get the picture: 

Two years ago tomorrow (October 21st), the social financial community lost one of its shining lights, our friend Jon Boorman.

In the year prior, he’d been diagnosed with Glioblastoma, an incurable form of brain cancer, and was given a prognosis of about one year to live.

We cannot possibly fathom what receiving that type of news feels like and I won’t even dare to attempt to imagine it.

All I can say is that when he called me on the phone and broke the news, I couldn’t keep my composure and cried like a baby. Amazingly, by this time Jon had already come to peace with what was happening. Jon, like me, was a fan of Stoic philosophy, and I can’t even begin to describe the awe I had in Jon as he seemed to face down this impending tragedy with amazing calm and acceptance.

One of the great blessings for Jon and his family was

This is the video recording of the October 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The DJ Industrial Avg at the Pre-Covid Highs
• Fewer Stocks are making New Lows
• Small-caps, Mid-caps & Micro-caps diverging positively
• Sentiment is at a historic bearish extreme
• Credit Spreads tightening the past 4 months
• Negative Correlation Between US Dollar & Stocks intact
• Consumer Discretionary outpacing Staples
• Sector Level trends are improving
• Energy making new 52-week highs relative to Stocks
• Shorting these REITs and Software Stocks
• Industrials & Regional Banks making new 52wk relative highs
• More Bullish Options Activity in Occidental Petroleum
• Coal Stocks Setting Up For Breakouts
• Industrial Stocks ready to bounce
• Financials holding Support
• Copper/Gold ratio not confirming new highs in Yields
• 5 & 10/yr Breakevens peaked quarters ago
• Emerging Markets down near critical levels
• Seasonally the best time to buy stocks
• List of my favorite stocks to buy

It's that time of the quarter where we options swing traders need to be extra mindful of pending earnings releases. The last thing we want to do is place a directional bet in a stock or it's options heading into a binary event that could decapitate us in a heartbeat.

This is frustrating us right now because most of the charts we like best (both the bullish and bearish ones) are in stocks with earnings slated to be released in the next week or two.

During our morning Analyst meeting today, we discussed the fact that many of the banking/financial sector stocks have already reported earnings by now, therefore, this is a place we should look.

Specifically, we like the big money center mega/multinational banks that are represented best by the $KBE ETF. Here is a chart that paints a pretty good picture of why we like it:

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

Look, we're not going to sugarcoat it: it's hard out there right now.

Regardless of your timeframe, if you're trying to make aggressive long or short bets in this tape, you're getting chopped up. So are we.

These types of markets grind us out and wear us out. It is what it is. We can't choose the market we're given, we can only control how we react to it.

This much we know -- forcing directional bets right now feels like a fool's errand.

But with options premiums elevated across the board, there are opportunities to put on delta-neutral short premium trades where charts suggest some consolidation may be taking place. However, we need to be careful not to sell premium on stocks that have earnings releases coming up soon. So to avoid that all together, we're going to limit our universe to index and sector ETFs.