From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

On July 23rd the NY Chapter of the CMT Association had the pleasure of hosting Tony Dwyer, Chief Market Strategist at Canaccord Genuity.

Tony provided an interesting perspective to our Technical-oriented group because while he focuses on Macroeconomic and Fundamental data in addition to Technicals, he emphasized that his approach is always data-based, not opinion-based.

He performs Technical Analysis of Fundamental data.

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

We've been writing about Financial Services/Bank Stock outperformance for a while, especially as it relates to the breadth of the broader market.

Despite Financial Services accounting for a third of the Nifty 500's weighting, they cannot support the entire market on their own. Especially if/when they need to correct...like they are now.

That brings us to today's charts.

Last week we outlined two Commodities that were ready to bounce and they're off to a great start.

Today we want to turn our focus to Base Metals, where one Commodity looks ready to reverse to the upside.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you everyone for your feedback and participation.

I received a lot of answers, but most of you were buyers and the rest were split between doing nothing and selling.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

We've been watching some of the Energy ETFs we track most of this year for potential mean-reversion opportunities on the long side.

We recently discussed for our Institutional Clients an opportunity in the Small-Cap Energy ETF (PSCE), which rallied 17.50% from its 2018 lows before reversing back to those levels again.

The main issue in Energy remains that there appears to be an attractive mean reversion opportunity at the ETF level, but when we drill down into individual stocks there aren't many clean setups...making it difficult to identify what the main drivers of this move higher would be.

Let's take a look.

For the purpose of this exercise, we're going to look at Oil Services ETF (OIH) because its risk management level is the cleanest of the Energy subsectors.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

JC and I are generally on the same page about a lot of things, but this week our brains seem to be very in sync as we're writing about the same topics with a slightly different spin on each subject.

Yesterday JC spoke about how US Equities can do just fine, actually really well, during periods of Small-Cap underperformance.

Today I want to take a more granular look at the Russell 2000 and see what its recent price action has in common with the Euro Stoxx 50.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

We've been pointing to the improving relative strength of Financials in the face of falling Interest Rates in the US and around the world.

Today I want to focus on what we're seeing in Regional Banks.

Since early July stocks in India have come under more selling pressure, with the Mid-Caps and Small-Cap indices falling roughly 10% and the large-cap Nifty 50 falling about 6%.

This has exacerbated the relative underperformance of India versus other Emerging Markets which it had been outperforming up until late May.

Prices in many of the major indices are now approaching critical levels of support, begging the question will buyers will step in again to defend these levels or is more selling ahead?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.