From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals shine as the dollar drops.

It makes sense our bullish metal trades are working in this environment. But how are less dollar-sensitive contracts faring?

Let’s check back on two recent trades from October, coffee and orange juice.

First up is the orange juice futures contract:

OJ came within striking distance of our upside objective last month.

It’s now carving out a near-term top while posting a bearish momentum divergence – not the most bullish price action.

I'm not sure what everyone is so angry about, but I like it.

The pessimism out there is off the charts.

Investors are scared.

Risk aversion is dominating. Risk appetite is non-existent.

This is the best time to buy stocks during the entire 4-year Presidential Cycle.

And guess what investors are doing?

They've been buying stocks...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

As our Premium Members already know, we have a laundry list of scans that we run internally on an almost daily basis.

Different market environments, naturally, are more conducive to certain scans and less so to others.

We think our “Freshly Squeezed” scan is perfect for the current market. With so many individual issues in massive drawdowns as the broader market begins to turn a corner, there are going to be some serious short-covering rallies in some of the most beaten-down names.

In fact, it’s already starting to happen. Infamous meme stock, AMC Entertainment $AMC was up 25% at its highs today (not on a closing basis).

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with heavy short positions. When a stock is heavily shorted, it means there are natural incremental buyers. Bulls need incremental buyers, as this is the only way price can move higher. When shorts are proven wrong, they have to buy their shares back to close out their position. 

It's the weekly bond market edition of What the FICC?

Today we're tracking European yields for insight into the next big move in US interest rates.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

The strong US dollar and higher interest rates have dominated the conversation this year.

But the direction of the US Dollar Index $DXY has changed, breaking its year-to-date trendline earlier this month. 

Will interest rates follow?

Not yet! So far, the uptrend remains intact for the five-, 10-, and 30-year yields. We have to give these trends the benefit of the doubt, for now.

Despite their persistence, it seems more a matter of when not if rates do eventually roll over.

Based on information from the US bond market and developed-market European yields, it could happen sooner than you might expect.

Let’s break it down.

First, we can’t dismiss the middle-long end of the curve holding above year-to-date trendlines.

I continue to wonder what people are so angry about.

More and more stocks keep going up.

Fewer and fewer are going down.

More sectors are participating.

More countries are acting strong.

What's the problem?

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

But we also highlight lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday December 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Today we're turning our attention to key commodity currencies for insight into the US dollar's next directional move.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza 

While there have been some real winners during the recent rally, the run off the lows from this fall has also left many stocks behind.

Value stocks, cyclicals, and blue-chip names have prospered for the past two months, as groups like financials and industrials have been the latest beneficiaries of sector rotation. 

At the same time, mega-cap technology and the most-speculative growth areas of the market have continued to show relative weakness.

To be clear, it’s not like these stocks have been crashing lower while the rest of the market rallies. Of course, many have participated in the upside action.

But, on balance, the performance from growth stocks has been lackluster.

The disparity between the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the value-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average perfectly illustrates what’s taken place:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to what’s easy or comfortable. Instead, let’s focus on the facts.

Markets continue to send mixed signals, testing the resolve of even the most disciplined investor. Rather than fight the trend or trendless nature of the markets, I prefer to identify evidence that supports the next directional move.

And there’s one insightful chart atop my deck regarding the direction of the US dollar.