From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we’re doing this is simple…

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We study a wide variety of sentiment data as we incorporate many different indicators into our day-to-day analysis.

In its simplest form, sentiment tells us how certain market participants or investors feel about the market.

Are investors feeling bullish and increasing their exposure to risk?

Or, are investors feeling fearful and positioning defensively?

More often than not, these are contrarian indicators that work best when at extremes.

One of our favorite sets of sentiment data comes from a weekly report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is called the Commitment Of Traders, or COT report, and it simply outlines how various participants are positioned in futures markets.

We get lots of questions regarding how we analyze the COT report, so let’s talk about two of the main ways we find value in this information.

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Outside of the large-cap averages in the US, most stocks have been stuck in sideways trends for much of 2021. We’ve seen breakouts fail in both directions over the past two months, as sloppy price action continues to govern the broader market.

As we discussed in our last intermarket post, this range-bound action has not just been the case for stocks on an absolute basis. We’re seeing the same thing from commodities, cryptocurrencies, and even our risk-appetite ratios. Risk assets have simply been a mess.

Let's take a look at one of our favorite risk-appetite ratios, as there's been an important development in the discretionary versus staples relationship. 

Here is large-cap consumer discretionary $XLY versus consumer staples $XLP: 

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Not unlike the major US equity indexes, the commodity space is still range-bound as we head into year-end.

When we compare the trailing 12-month returns of individual groups, we get a sense of how bifurcated the commodity market has been. Another thing that stands out is just how weak precious metals have been relative to their peers.

While the rest of the asset class has posted solid gains on the year, gold and silver continue to trend lower. If this is truly a commodities supercycle, we’d expect to see some participation from this group. And, considering they’ve been in a downtrend for almost 18-months now as the rest of the space has been working, we’d expect it to happen soon. 

Let’s take a closer look at what’s going on with these shiny rocks.

First, here’s a chart with the trailing 12-month returns of our four major commodity indexes - energy, precious metals, base metals, and ags:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Check it out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

We have a new Options trade up this week.

We're buying an $MMC April 170/200 Bull Call Spread for around a $7.50 debit all in. This means we’re long the 170 calls and short an equal amount of 200 calls..

Check out our short video with the thought process behind these trades:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

It was only a month ago that we discussed the TIPS versus Treasuries ratio hitting its highest level since 2013 as investors prepared for rising inflation.

Fast-forward to today, and the inflationary backdrop looks very different.

Inflation breakeven and forward expectation rates have rolled over aggressively since the middle of November. This is illustrated by the TIP/IEF ratio, which recently undercut its May highs. Combine this action with the lack of follow-through on last week’s kick save from the 30-year yield, and the prospects of rates rising across the curve aren’t looking too hot.

But what does that mean for risk assets?

For starters, commodities will miss out on all the usual tailwinds that come with inflationary pressure. Let’s take a look at a chart that highlights that relationship.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

During this morning's internal strategy session with the All Star Charts team, one theme we hit upon was that many of the stocks we want to be long have already had big runs making it irresponsible to get long here, and all the stocks we want to get short have already had big recent legs down and we don't want to chase those either!

I mean, to give you an idea, just look at the charts of healthcare ETF $XLV which is made up of many small-cap names, and $IWM -- the Russell 2000 small-cap index -- both are going in completely opposite directions! That pretty much sums up the predicament we find ourselves in right now.

It's a messy market out there!

So, naturally, we should look at companies that manage risk as their business!

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

All eyes have been on the US dollar and interest rates in recent weeks.

Last week, we saw a timely kick save from the bond market as the 30-year reclaimed its summer lows. Whether the latest rebound in rates will hold is yet to be seen as the 10 and 30 are currently chopping sideways just above our risk levels. We’re watching the long end of the curve closely to see how yields react at these critical levels.

But what about the US dollar?

When we analyze the US Dollar Index $DXY, it’s hard to be bearish, as price is consolidating in a tight continuation pattern following a base breakout and swift leg higher last month. As usual, the direction in which the DXY resolves will have broad market implications and will affect risk assets around the globe.

We know you’re probably tired of hearing it, but this is another big week for markets -- especially the dollar!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

On Monday night we held our December Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!