I've caught myself talking more and more about Cryptocurrencies since last Summer.

And there's a reason for that.

We like buying things that are going up in price, and selling (or not buying) the things going down.

That's really it.

You guys who have been around for a while remember me writing about, commenting and informing readers about Bitcoin back in 2016. I was talking about Crypto trading then even more than I am now. In fact, if you knew me back in 2014, I probably sent you some bitcoin as a gift. I was into doing that sort of thing back then.

BUT, in between 2018 and 2020 there wasn't really much to do in that space, so I stayed quiet and focused my efforts and attention elsewhere, like in Technology and Growth stocks for example.

More recently, we've been pounding the table about Bitcoin since...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

One major theme that we’re watching closely right now are the growing number of risk assets at or near critical levels or key former highs.

We continue to see a variety of world stock market indexes approach crucial inflection points. As the list keeps getting longer, our cautionary view of the potential for further choppiness in many markets gets stronger.  

Where prices resolve from here in major indexes like the MSCI Emerging Markets, EAFE -- and even some major domestic indexes such as the Russell 2000, are about to provide us with some big-time information into the health of global equities and risk-assets in general.

Today, we’re going to look at one of these diversified international indexes that finds itself in this same boat as it approaches its pre-financial crisis record highs.  

This week on the podcast I sit down with Meb Faber, Co-Founder, CEO and CIO of Cambia Investments. In addition to his "Day job", as he puts it, Meb has authored 5 investment books, a countless amount of white papers, and is also a very popular follow on Twitter @MebFaber.

This was really fun for me because Meb is an expert at a lot of things that I am just not, like what happens behind the scenes at ETFs, angel investing and academic studies. He brings up some great points about providing strategies that work, but that people also want/need.

He has some strong opinions about share buy backs instead of distributing dividends, learning through acting and participating, and how lucky him and I are that we took the CMT decades ago when it was a lot easier than it is today!

This was a lot of fun. Meb is a chill dude, but don't let him fool you, he's one of the smartest guys in the room!

Enjoy!

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Are Softs finally showing signs of life?

Base Metals, Grains, and even Energy have posted strong rallies over the last year. Yet the Softs -- Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar -- have continued to struggle below overhead supply.

But we’re seeing all the traditional signs of a structural trend reversal from this lagging group right now.

Let’s take a closer look at Coffee futures to pinpoint why we believe this bear-to-bull trend change is underway… 

Here’s a weekly chart of Coffee: 

Coffee futures have been in a nasty downtrend for almost a decade. But that no longer appears to be the case as they recently broke above a decade-long downtrend line in early February, signaling a potential...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday May 3rd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We've covered the Growth vs Value relationship ad nauseam since late last year.

We continue to believe that a structural trend reversal in favor of Value is underway.

We laid out our thesis and the key level we're watching to potentially prove it wrong... That is and has been 1.70 in the Russell Large Cap Growth vs Value ratio.

Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed or managed in the month of April. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all exited in accordance with the plan as laid out.

As we head towards May expiration, we only have one position remaining with May options.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice...

The ASC team has been writing a lot recently about how markets are looking a bit "messy" right now. This isn't a bullish or bearish declaration, it's just an indication that many of the recent moves we've seen are likely to hit into some consolidation.

And as an options traders, the word "consolidation" should trigger thoughts of delta neutral credit spreads.

With this in mind, I've identified a good short strangle candidate.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Optimism remains widespread from a cyclical perspective but history shows that it can (and in the past, has) remain elevated for extended periods of time. Options data show  the record surge in call activity over the past year has stalled. If the speculative fever that has helped fuel recent gains is breaking, resiliency beneath the surface and the continued tailwind provided by better than expected earnings and economic data will be increasingly important. After an unprecedented period of positive surprises, we just don’t know how investors would respond to disappointment at this point. We do know that stocks are most vulnerable when optimism is being unwound.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Speculative Fever Breaking? 

Equity options activity hints that investors are regaining their senses after a feverish bout of speculation. After an incredible surge, call activity may be rolling over....

On this week's episode of Bearish or Bullish, we talk about Year 2 of Bull Market cycles for stocks. Is this one those? Like 1976, like 1983, like 2004, like 2010?

What about Ethereum continuing to hold its breakout? Why is Ether doing so much better than Bitcoin?

Financials and European stocks breaking out of historic bases?

European Super Leagues? The Knicks don't suck?....what the heck is going on around here?

Let's discuss:

The messy market for stocks continues. Sure, a few stock indexes in the United States have made new highs, but how many stocks in those indexes are doing that?

Not as many, that's for sure, especially in small-caps and the Nasdaq, where we're only seeing a fraction of stocks still making new highs.

Divergences persist....

This environment continues to remind me of a lot of the "Year 2" of market cycles that we've seen before. Take the initial thrust off the 2009 lows for example. Notice the sideways chop in Year 2 of that cycle: