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The Strazza Letter

Tomorrow's Trillion Dollar Club

May 11, 2025

I’m always thinking about where the next big winners will come from.

Who will be the secular leaders of tomorrow?

What will be the next mega trend?

Who has the scale and the reach to dominate an industry?

What are the big ecosystem plays of the future?

But, I’m not only thinking about the fundamentals. It has to be confirmed by the technicals.

I love a good growth story as much as anyone, but I’m not going to fly blind with it.

One thing I know about stocks like the Magnificent Seven is they didn’t get to their size by accident.

The best stocks consistently outperform the overall market. That's what makes them the best!

So, I’ve learned to look out for this kind of thing. I never want to miss these trends.

The...

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The Strazza Letter

A Solar Squeeze Is Upon Us

May 9, 2025

More and more risk-on areas of the market are perking up with every passing day.

We’ve watched risk-appetite steal the show overseas in recent weeks, and now we’re seeing it stateside in US markets.

Small caps have outperformed off the April lows.

Speculative growth and ARK stocks have outperformed off the April lows.

Tech has led. Discretionary has led. Growth has led. High beta has led. 

All of this leadership boils down to the same thing.

Investors are embracing risk at an increasing rate. They want more exposure to the riskiest stocks and assets around the world, not less.

We just talked about this at our live event yesterday. We’re listening to the market and getting more aggressive on the long side.

...
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(Commodities Weekly) The Energy Trade Is Unraveling 📉🐻

May 9, 2025

When we last checked in, Crude Oil futures were falling apart as they sliced through significant levels of support like butter. 

The breakdown wasn’t subtle. It was decisive and came alongside broad weakness in the entire commodity complex.

Now, the carnage is spreading.

This week, it’s not just energy commodities that are under pressure...

It’s also the stocks tied to them.

Let’s start with the equal-weight ratio of the Energy Sector vs. the S&P 500: 

This ratio ($RSPG / $RSP) has been treading water in a sideways range for over two years. 

It has bounced from the same support level multiple times, but that level is now under serious threat. 

We’ve got a massive topping pattern on our hands. It's rounded, heavy, and on the verge of a confirmed breakdown.

One more leg lower, and Energy’s former leadership story gets completely erased.

But that’s just the beginning…

Small-cap energy stocks have already...
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International Hall of Famers (05-09-2025)

May 9, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

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New‑School Nuclear Sets Up

May 9, 2025

Spec‑growth is alive and well, as more and more offensive names are taking center stage for the current rally.

We continue to find bullish themes in specific industry groups from cyber, to quantum computing, and space & exploration. 

Investors are reaching out on the risk spectrum, and we’re ready to ride these trends with them.

Nothing screams “risk-on” louder than small‑modular nukes feeding AI’s power appetite. 

I’ve been referring to this basket of stocks as the “new nuclears,” but they actually have some really cool science, not to mention- a secular trend, behind them.

Let’s dive in.

At the Index level, the Nuclear Energy ETF $NLR is shaping up and threatening to break out of a monster base. 

 ...
The Strazza Letter

A Bull in Bangkok

May 8, 2025

I somehow found myself in Bangkok presenting to a room full of traders for a CMT event a few years ago.

I remember thinking how much I wanted them to like me…

And worrying that they wouldn’t because I had nothing positive to say about their local markets.

The charts were just so bad. There was no way around it.

The Thai Baht and the SET Index had just completed fresh tops. These trends were undeniably lower.

And this was really the case for all the Southeast Asian countries we visited.

Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam were in the middle of some nasty downtrends too.

I wish I had better news for everyone, but instead it felt like I was going from city to city announcing bear markets all over Asia.

I’ll never forget it. I literally felt bad. The people I met out there were trading these markets....

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2 to 100 Club (05-07-2025)

May 7, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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Currency Report: New Trend in The New Dollar

May 6, 2025

The Taiwan New Dollar just posted its sharpest two-day rally against the US dollar—ever.

This wasn’t just any rally. It was a vertical move—TWD/USD spiked over 10% in two sessions, tagging a near three-year high in the process.

It caught the entire FX complex leaning the wrong way. It was statistically off the charts

This wasn’t a six-sigma move. Or even ten. We're talking fifteen sigma. That’s what quants call an “impossible” outcome. A market move so extreme that it breaks the model. 

 

A 10% move might not turn heads in a tape where spec. growth stocks like HIMS or PLTR can move that and more intraday—but for a currency pair? It’s seismic. Especially when the pair has been dozing in a multi-year falling wedge. 

That pattern? It just resolved higher. The breakout came right at the apex of the wedge—when no one was paying attention.

 

With this kind of volatility comes a forced unwind. Exporters, insurers, speculators—everyone caught leaning the wrong way gets squeezed out the door. Fast.

So what’s behind it—but more...

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The Strazza Letter

Going Out On Top

May 5, 2025

The greatest investor the world has ever seen announced his retirement this weekend. 

Warren Buffett delivered the news at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting on Saturday that he’ll be stepping down on January 1, 2026.

Naturally, this was the big story of the day. But all I keep hearing is that the stock is down 5% on the news.

You gotta be kidding me. 

JC and I have been joking for years that when this moment comes, you buy the dip. And now that it’s here, we’re doing it.

So, let’s tell the real story of Buffett and Berkshire shares these days.

What all the headlines aren’t telling you is that Buffett literally just went out on top in the most GOAT fashion. Let me explain…

Berkshire closed at fresh all-time highs Friday.

Only a handful of stocks in the S&P 500 could say the same.

The market just suffered a swift and steep drawdown. It's the worst of the entire cycle. A lot of stocks have been absolutely crushed. But not this one. 

Not only that, but BRK also recently made...

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The Minor Leaguers (05-05-2025)

May 5, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

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177K Reasons the Fed Can Wait

May 4, 2025

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

 

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

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(Commodities Weekly) Who Let The Cows Out? 🐂

May 2, 2025

After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.

While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.

Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.

Let’s walk through the setup...

Our ASC Livestock Index has broken out above a major shelf of resistance 📈 

This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.

That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.

With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!

It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.

Is it time for Lean Hogs to catch up? 🐷 

Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.

Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line...