We hear this term a lot: "Overhead Supply". But what does that mean exactly?

Well, I'll tell you what it means to me. When I look at today's stock market, I see stocks rallying throughout 2017 and running into resistance, or more selling than buying, in January of 2018. After some distribution, stocks rallied once again late into the 3rd quarter last year, only fail and sell off. That was a beautiful sell-off in stocks that many of us enjoyed very much.

Fast forward to 2019 and we've had a killer rally in stocks that has brought us back to where this overhead supply party first got started early last year. This is now the 3rd attempt and failure for stocks. And when I say stocks, I don't just mean the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, I'm referring to stocks as an asset class.

In this video, I try and explain what I mean by pointing out the behavior of the Global 100 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Composite Average, Dow Jones Internet Index and the IPO Index. They're all telling a similar story of "Overhead Supply". In the future, when I give...

People love to hear a good story. We have an evolutionary desire to gossip and be told stories even if we know they're untrue. As Sapiens, it's important to know this about ourselves. But you know who definitely knows it? The media. And they're going to use that desire against you every single day for their own profit. They will tell you stories all day every day as long as you're willing to listen. They're so thirsty for your attention that they'll tell you anything just so they can sell ads to their precious sponsors. It's their job to make the noise. It's our job to ignore it.

Today, I'm going to show you the chart that actually tells the real story about what is going on in today's market. I comb through thousands of charts a week and I can tell you for a fact that there is one underlying theme that I'm seeing across the board: Stocks, Sectors and Indexes, and that is the Overhead supply we've been stuck below since early last year. 

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Every few weeks I get a message from someone asking a question along the lines of "Should I enroll in the CMT Program?" As with most things, the answer is it depends on your individual situation.

While I can't offer personalized advice to everyone, I can discuss my experience and the key benefits now that I've completed the process.

This post is going to be split into two parts; one where I explain my answer to the question that prompted this post, and the other where I summarize my actual experience in the program.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Wednesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite right now, so thank you everyone for your feedback and participation.

I received a lot of answers, but most of you were skeptical of the breakout and wanted to see more before getting involved. A few others wanted to be long with a tight stop and few, if any, were sellers.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

The actual chart was the ratio of the Insurance subsector ($IAK) relative to the S&P 500, which is breaking out to 11-month highs as momentum gets overbought for the first time in nearly 2 years.

To me this looks like a textbook trend reversal, so while there may be some backing and filling over the near-term, Insurance stocks look set to outperform over the intermediate/long-term.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

The relative strength is also...

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The trend is your friend...but what do we do if there is no trend?

These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday May 13th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call:

About eight months ago Patrick Dunuwila from The Chart Report introduced me to a new data visualization platform called Koyfin. Two month's later I met Rob, one of the co-founders, at Stocktoberfest West. He walked me through the product and what they were doing and I was sold.

A few months later we had the opportunity to invest and we jumped at it. We loved the product and the team, so it seemed like a natural fit.

Today, Koyfin is an irreplaceable tool that I use alongside Optuma as my main tools for charting and analysis.

I get a lot of questions about how I use it, so I wanted to write a post answering just that.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.

The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

I couldn't help but see many of the same folks who were happy about Trump's "Trade Deal" tweets when they drove the stock market higher complaining as his tweets sent Futures lower on Sunday night and again today after the bell.

I thought this might be a good time to remind ourselves of something.

With the Chinese Internet Index closing at new 7-month highs this week, have we seen the move already, or are we just getting started?

One thing we know for sure by studying history is that stock prices trend. That's why Technical Analysis works. These tools help us identify those trends. Many academics will tell you that these consistent series of higher highs and higher lows over time are just random. The truth is you can show these charts to a 5 year old and the kid will tell you that yes, this stock is going up, or no this stock is going down. You can even argue that a trend is sideways, but that is trend recognition nonetheless.

It's very clear that markets trend, particularly stocks. They go up over time and they go down over time. A stock making new highs has a higher likelihood of continuing to make new highs vs turning around and beginning a new trend. An object in motion tends to stay in motion, is how Newton taught us. It's the same in stocks, which are driven by e-motion. (See what I did there?)

With Chinese Internet holding above key levels, I think the path of least resistance is over 10% higher for the Index. If $KWEB is above 49,...

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Over the last two months we've been pointing to many divergences in breadth and momentum, as well as intermarket relationships that add to the mixed near-term signals we continue to see around the globe.

Last week I compared the current environment in US Stocks to that of India's a month ago saying the stage was set, but that all these divergences needed price confirmation before they become actionable.