One of the key themes we've been monitoring in the crypto ecosystem is the movement to a new era dominated by an increasing number of derivative vehicles at investors' disposal.

In previous Bitcoin cycles, investors primarily moved to cash through selling spot.

Now, with a liquid futures market, savvy traders have been hedging their positions (today's equivalent of going to cash) by shorting calendar futures.

This constant selling pressure in calendar futures has driven the term structure lower over the last few months and is a reliable metric for both long and short time frame analysis.

Anyone familiar with the endeavor of trading has eventually realized the flaws of our human instincts. This isn't isolated to investing.

It's a widely documented phenomenon that we're constantly susceptible to subconscious biases.

We're approaching this from the lens of technical analysis. But apophenia is universal to the human condition.

Apophenia: the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things (such as objects or ideas).

Let's run through some examples and see how it applies to trading.

What's the best crypto trade on the books right now?

For us, it's been pretty simple.

While everything else has been a complete mess, there's been one name that's really stood out on all of our scans.

You know what I'm about to say...

We've been overly obnoxious with our tone of mostly staying out of the Crypto market and playing defense.

There's been so little to discuss and so few actionable trades that our priority right now is waiting for reliable signals to suggest a resolution from this trading range.

Price action in most crypto assets is still range-bound. It appears 46,000 is the critical level for bulls to reclaim.

There are many mixed signals, so we have no read on current price action as of the writing of this report.

This is the video recording of our March 11, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

You hear that?

I certainly do.

"Chop, chop, chop..."

It's the sound of tilted traders getting chopped up.

It's a tale as old as time: people playing the market like it's trending, when it's nothing more than ping-ponging.

Price is in a really well-defined range, and there's no point getting hyped by any moves - up or down - before we actually get confirmation of a real break.

This approach of remaining completely neutral has done a great job of protecting us from the tilt of getting chopped up.

Just look at the recent price action.

It's refreshing when we finally have a potential breakout to talk about when the market's been a total mess over the last few months.

The crypto "new highs" list has been so quiet and empty that you can almost literally hear the tumbleweeds dancing.

But here comes Terra $LUNA trying to bring back some life into that list. Gotta respect that.

So, is this the real deal?

Are we finally going to get that setup we've been waiting so long for?

We really hate to sound like a broken record, but we want to be downright obnoxious in hammering this down.

There's no edge in pushing longs right now, seriously.

You can try all you want. But all you're doing is asking to get whipsawed and chopped up.

Scroll down to download this week's chart deck.

It's a tale as old as time, traders pushing their opinions onto the market and not adapting their approach for different environments.

Trend-following strategies worked great in 2020 and after the summer bottom last year.

But now? Not so much.

Forget about headlines, opinions, or gossip. It's all noise.

Money is the only thing that moves markets. Follow money flow.

And what's the tape saying?

Downtrends and ranges everywhere. That's the tale for not just crypto, but macro too.

Over the last few months, we've continued to hammer the point that the market is a mess and trading should be kept to a minimum.

We've taken shots at small long trades in a few altcoins during this time, only for us to ultimately get chopped up days after putting the positions on.

This is information.

Crypto as an asset class is range-bound at best, and unless you're incorporating a staking/yield/options strategy, the vast majority of crypto traders have been better off positioned in stables on the sidelines.

The macro environment continues to be heavily driven by geopolitical volatility and the situation in Eastern Europe.

Parabolic commodity prices are beginning to take their toll on the broad market indexes, which Bitcoin and crypto have been correlated with in recent months and quarters.

Moreover, whales and savvy traders are still in the process of selling.

This is the video recording of our March 4, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

As a trader, it's your job to find an edge.

There's quite literally an infinite amount of strategies, systems, and indicators you can integrate into your process.

But, at the end of the day, mastering just a select few will likely generate alpha as opposed to creating inconsistency in your approach.

Think about it: If you go to the gym, you have a structured program. You don't go to the gym and aimlessly decide on random exercises. You have a rigid plan that you're going to build on top of the lifts you did the workout before.

Trading's the same.

You don't need to switch between every time frame, make every decision using a different indicator from the last, or follow someone else with different objectives from yourself into our trade.

You find repeatable setups where you can find your edge.

For instance, you may only trade in the aftermath of liquidity cascade events that take place a handful of times every year. Mastered well enough, a few well-calculated trades in similar conditions can make your entire year.

In day-to-day life, being a "Jack of all trades, master of none" might serve you well.