That's why crypto has caught our attention so much in recent months: It's stood out as a beacon of alpha.
Whether or not you've been invested in crypto, chances are you've probably heard all the chatter about Solana - and for good reason. It gained a whopping 700% from its July lows in just under two months, making it one of our best trades of the year.
But, when you dive down the cap scale, there are so many opportunities shaping out just like how Solana was a few months ago.
We hate sounding like such a broken record about this level, but we really need to be downright obnoxious about its importance.
Though we think Bitcoin will eventually breakout, we wanted to dive deeper into the near-term risks associated with the leverage that speculators have recently adopted that elevates the risk of another potential long squeeze in the coming weeks.
In this chart, we're looking at Bitcoin's total open interest as well as the open interest held exclusively in perpetual future contracts. Since Bitcoin bottomed at the end of September, we've seen OI jump by a notable $11B in just 3-weeks.
In yesterday's note, we exercised caution given that Bitcoin achieved our upside target and the growing leverage in the derivative markets.
The strategy for the coming days/weeks is that if Bitcoin is below 65,000, the bias is sideways to lower in the near term.
But when we look out longer-term, the skies could not be any bluer for the asset class.
We're in the camp that Bitcoin will eventually resolve higher, and when it does, it would be irresponsible to NOT be positioned aggressively long crypto.
We're not just talking Bitcoin, but also the altcoins, and even the crypto stocks.
So let's zoom out and identify the backdrop of accumulation that has and continues to take place on-chain.
One of the often underappreciated elements of crypto is the transparency of transactions that enables us to really see what's happening in the market. The vast majority of our analysis in traditional markets is conducted through price charts because price reflects the intimate dynamic of supply and demand. But in crypto, on-chain trends are...
Now, patience is warranted as demand begins to absorb the looming supply around these levels.
It'd be prudent to raise cash and take some profits off the table while Bitcoin is below 65,000. Below there, the downside risks remain elevated for now.
Over the last few months, we've focused on names trading above their spring highs.
Along with this simple message, we've included this chart featuring four prominent names right at their highs from earlier in the year:
We're putting so much effort into this setup for two reasons:
All-time highs are achieved in the strongest of assets.
Buying new highs allows us to define our risk.
First, bases take time to build.
Bases of this magnitude are formed by accumulation from people with a lot of money that needs to be put to work. Institutions -- or, in the case of crypto, whales -- need liquidity to enter long-term spot positions. They don't have the luxuries of more nimble traders who are able to enter and exit at will and start long-term positions when momentum heats up on a breakout.
They need liquidity, and there's plenty of it when retail capitulates and sells their coins down in bear markets.
Unlike what university professors will argue, prices don't fall under a normal distribution,...