From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Last week, we asked the question...is it time for a dollar bounce?

And the market quickly answered with a resounding, YES!

We’ve highlighted several currency pairs challenging crucial levels of support and resistance. Last week, we saw the USD take control at those key levels. 

Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD turned away from critical areas of former support turned resistance. The USD/CAD moved sharply higher from a major area of support. The AUD/USD broke back below a key retracement level after consolidating for the first half of the year. And the NZD/USD retreated from an area of...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• Macro Universe:
  • There was pervasive weakness in our macro universe this week as 85% of our list closed lower with a median return of -2.17%.
  • The VIX index was the big winner, closing out the week with more than a 30% gain and registering fresh 4-week highs in the process.
  • The biggest loser again this week was Lumber, with another massive weekly loss of -15%
  • Despite the weakness (and something we haven’t said since April), the...

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

And at present, markets are a total mess and full of mixed messages as most major stock market indexes continue to churn sideways in consolidation patterns, while many risk-on commodities are in corrective phases.

While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US Dollar trading at key levels against a significant amount of Developed and Emerging Market currencies is the major theme in Currency Markets right now. 

The GBP/USD is challenging an area of resistance that acted as support for over two decades but has been a barrier for prices since the Brexit vote almost 5 years ago.

The USD/CHF is on the verge of completing a massive 9-year top.

The USD/ZAR just violated critical support at a decade-long trend line.

And USD/CAD is currently attempting to complete a 5-year double top... with a pattern that looks strikingly similar to that of the DXY Index itself.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our Macro Universe was mixed this week as only 51% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.05%.
• Small-Caps was the strongest, closing out the week with a 1.89% gain and a fresh 4-week high.
• The biggest loser of the week was the Lumber losing a massive 17%
• US indices like the S&P 500, Russell 3000 & Russell 1000 closed the week out at...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week of late. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to months is for risk assets to remain in a mixed and messy environment. Once we begin to see evidence that indicates the current "chop fest" is nearing an end - which could simply come in the form of a reduction in the number of...

This is the video recording of our June 8th, 2021, Monthly Charts Strategy Session.

Here is the video in full:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

A couple of weeks ago, we posed this question in a post titled "Can the Dollar best the BRICS?"

Back then, we were already leaning toward "NO." Fast forward to today, and it's more like a "NO WAY."

The reason for this is simple. In that post, we explained the line in the sand for our USD/BRICS Index was ~19.

In the few weeks since, this critical level has been violated. The market has spoken, and it's saying we're in for a lower US Dollar relative to BRIC-country currencies.

For you visual learners... This is what the chart looked like back then, and here is what it looks like now. Quite the difference, right?

This is just another...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

 Macro Universe:

• Our Macro Universe continued its strength this week as over 77% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.50%.
• Crude Oil was the strongest, closing out the week with a 5% gain as it trades at its highest level in several years.
• The biggest loser of the week was Copper losing over 3%.
  • Check out this...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US Dollar remains at crucial inflection points versus both emerging and developed currencies.

In last week’s note, we pointed out the critical 19 level in the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund $CEW, along with the numerous tests of support in our custom USD vs. BRICS Currency Index.

Not only is the USD looking increasingly vulnerable against emerging and developed currencies, but we’re now starting to see some of the major Dollar crosses break down or resolve lower.

In many cases, these moves are confirming long-term reversal patterns with USD/CAD. For example, the Dollar just broke to fresh multi-year lows relative to the Canadian Dollar.

We reviewed the chart in this column a few weeks back, highlighting the possibility of an impending double top. 

Well, here’s what it looks like now:

...