Commodities have been at the center of our analysis for over a year now. There have been times when base metals have done well. And here have been times when agri commodities have done well. But every single time, precious metals stayed out of it.
Precious metals have been the worst place to be in over the past one and a half years. But it looks as though things are about to change.
Why?
Gold and Silver seem to be interested in jumping on the bullish bandwagon. Are they there yet? Let's take a look!
Precious metals have been the worst place to be in for the longest time. But with commodities across the globe taking off, precious metals finally got the memo. The cargo is on the move, folks!
Not many people know this, but I used to be a gold bug way back in the day.
Mid-2000s and into the financial crisis and beyond?
I was Mr. Gold Bug.
Any good technician was. That's how price told us to behave.
But then a funny thing happened. A combination of price and common sense proved that being a gold bug was no longer a good idea. That was about a decade ago.
And you know how humans are. Many of those angry little buggers stuck around and held other people's bags this entire time, while stocks and other risk assets have ripped making everyone rich, except for gold bugs.
It's funny how life works.
Because I think we might be back.
It's hard not to be in the Rocks > Stocks club these days.
This month marks the one year anniversary of the top in stocks.
And more specifically, I mean the top in the internals of the U.S. Stock Market. Remember, that's the best things were, and it's been a painful deterioration ever since, particularly for most U.S. Index Fund investors, growth investors and most individual U.S. stock pickers.
The new highs list these days is loaded up with ADRs, Metals stocks, Staples and Energy. Most of the other stocks have been struggling. Not all of them are down, but many are sideways at best.
This chart really tells the story of what's been going on. We discussed it on Tuesday night's call:
What do we know for sure about new all-time highs?
We know they aren't characteristics of downtrends.
New highs are something we regularly see in uptrends.
And wouldn't you know it, Gold Futures just made new all-time highs, priced in Japanese Yen.
"But I live in America, JC. Why should I care about gold in yen terms?"
Because Gold acts much more like a currency than a commodity. Haven't you noticed how practically every commodity on earth has skyrocketed the past 18 months, except Gold?
Besides, the new all-time highs in Gold priced in Yen also came along with new 52-week highs in Gold priced in both Euro and Australian Dollar.