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[Options] The Tech Sector Is Holding Up Well

March 15, 2023

All things considered, the tech sector is holding up well. This gives me some comfort that this is an area we can sell some delta-neutral options premium to ride out this market volatility.

But we're going to do so carefully, defining our risks and playing it conservatively.

Check out this chart of the Technology Sector ETF $XLK:

The horizontal lines on this chart represent areas we can sell April options premium at that feel far enough away for me to like our odds.

We're going to get involved with an Iron Condor.

Momma Said There'd Be Days Like This

March 14, 2023

People love the idea of entering options trades with a high probability of success. It’s easy to be seduced by the prospect of winning on 60, 70, or even 80 percent of our trades.

It doesn’t take much imagination to enjoy visions of swimming in all the cash we’d surely be earning with such a strategy. And why not? With that kind of win rate, we’ll often go on runs where we win on multiple trades in a row.

Talk about a confidence builder!

Of course, there is no free lunch on Wall Street. And in strategies with a high probability of success, there is a dark underside that people conveniently like to ignore.

This type of discussion quickly makes us unpopular at cocktail parties. So we avoid it. Many know, but most are unwilling to talk about it.

The trading action in the regional banking sector, and to a lesser extent bond ETFs, drove home a stark reminder to anyone involved in naked options (like me) — that there will be times when we will suffer large losses.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Stepping Into the Industrial Swamp

March 10, 2023

The Volatility Gods are offering us more tempting options premiums to sell. Is it a trap? Perhaps.

But I can step into the morass with a defined risk delta-neutral credit spread in a sector ETF that looks rangebound.

This puts me in a position to profit from a mean-reversion in volatility while protecting against further scary market action.

 

[Options] Materially Sideways?

March 8, 2023

Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).

When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.

An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.

[Options] Booking a FaceRipper in Meta

March 1, 2023

If stocks are going higher from here, Meta Platforms $META (the cool kids call it "facebook") is likely to lead the way.

We're going to leverage some short puts to pay for the potential of unlimited upside if we get our timing right.

And the best part is, we've got a nearby risk-management level to tell us we're wrong. And if we are, we'll likely know quickly.

Check out this chart of $META:

I Don't Deserve These Profits

February 28, 2023

I F*d up.

And when I do, I usually suffer the consequences – almost without exception.

But today is one of those exceptions. Thankfully.

Recently, in an effort to fade the rising volatility in the options market arising from the 3-4 week pullback from recent stock market highs, I sold naked puts in a large cap stock – Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

I like the name for a number of reasons, the most prominent being that Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) has been acquiring large blocks of stock just below current levels. This is support.

So when the broader markets were continuing their slide a couple of weeks ago, I felt $OXY was a high probability bet to hold these levels until the mini-market panic cooled off, and selling premium via $OXY puts seemed like an intelligent way to play it.

So far so good.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Short-Term Tactical Premium Play

February 24, 2023

Stocks continue to be slippery with the S&P 500 down 6 out of the last 8 trading days.

I'm in the camp that this is a constructive pullback after a fantastic run to kick off 2023. JC has been pounding the table all month about how sloppy, digestive trading action in the month of February is perfectly normal market behaviour.

With February drawing to a close soon, I wouldn't be suprised to see this downdraft exhaust itself soon. As such, I'm going to make a tactical bet that a leading name in the banking/finance sector is going to hold these levels and potentially lead the way back to 2023 highs.

[Options] Building Premium Homes

February 22, 2023

Slippery markets make for rising options premiums. And one sector ETF is currently rising head and shoulders above the rest, offering some juicy premiums for us to sell into along with a wide risk management band for us to dance in.

So let's take advantage of the rising fear in this sector for an opportunistic trade and potentially quick profits.