Mea Culpa --- I'm letting this post stand because it offers two good lessons for traders:
1. The risk management laid out below is how I manage long calls heading into expiration. So anyone holding a similar position will benefit from this or a similar risk management plan.
2. It offers a lesson on keeping good records. I messed up. For ASO subscribers, we're actually in the September calls, NOT JUNE CALLS. We have plenty of time until our position expires and therefore we actually don't need to do anything here yet but enjoy our #FreeRide. The confusion for me is that I also have June calls on in my personal portfolio and I did not take careful notes in my personal spreadsheet. And when reviewing, I accidentally confused these June calls as part of the position we put on for ASO. So, yes, I personally will be exiting my June calls soon (as laid out below). But for those of you who followed me into our September calls trade, we've got time.
We play with the cards we are dealt. There is nothing else we can do. We cannot employ willpower to create market conditions into being the way we'd prefer them to be. They are what they are, it is what it is. So we work with what we've got.
And what we've got right now are a bunch of badly beaten up stocks. Many still off 60%+ from their recent highs.
Dumpster diving isn't my favorite way to find new ideas to trade. But my man Strazza enjoys the exercise from time to time and recently, he's uncovered some notable insider buying and unusual options activity in some former highflyers, most notably Zoom $ZM.
But first, let's survey the damage. This probably isn't new to many of you, but look how far ZM has fallen from its recent perch atop Momentum Mountain:
Back on February 2nd, we initiated a long-term bullish bet in Chevron $CVX January 2024 150-strike calls. You can read all about our thinking at the time here. In short, we were of the belief that a big breakout in the energy sector was appearing likely.
As you can see from this updated chart, our bet proved to be prescient. We've already taken back our original risk capital in this trade when we sold half of our position on March 2 at double what we originally paid. That has given us the super power to continue holding the remaining half position until now, achieving more gains.
If you joined JC and the guys on our live twitter spaces session today, towards the end you heard me venting my current frustration in finding good opportunities to make directional bets in either direction right now. It's tough sticking our neck out here.
But of course, as options traders, we are not limited to just directional bets. We can attempt to pull profits from sideways markets as well. And when volatility is still elevated in most areas, there are plenty of places to look to sell premium. And the best place to do that is in an instrument that we feel is likely to continue trading in a sideways range for a period of time.
Today's idea is one such ETF that has been mired in a nice juicy range for nearly a year now.
From a directional standpoint, there currently aren't any stock ideas on the board that are getting me excited to get involved in either direction. Bear markets can do that.
However, from an options premium selling point of view, there are some good opportunities out there. But best to stick with instruments that are showing signs of at least some near-term support and resistance.
One such instrument is in the interest rates space.
Ok, so the market is bouncing and its offering a nice reprieve to those who've been caught on the wrong side of the recent slide. Does this mean the bottom is in?
It's far too early to tell. And that's not the bet we're making just yet. In fact, today's trade is to take advantage of a nice bounce in a name we're bearish in to position for a retest of recent lows.
But yeah, it certainly feels like it when seemingly every "relief rally" is met with fierce selling.
In our morning analyst meeting today, the team was lamenting the fact that it seems any levels of support that might seem obvious are proving to be nothing more than mirages. Levels are getting taken out everywhere.
This makes it increasingly frustrating to put on any kind of range-bound delta neutral plays. Yes, volatility is high and its very tempting to put Iron Condors or Strangles on here. But if we're looking for instruments that are likely to stay within a certain range, we just don't have any confidence right now in any levels on our screens.
Another week and more elevated fears in the marketplace. The Nasdaq QQQ's breached the 300 level intraday today and that's got everyone chirping --- and for good reason.
Of course, the contrarian bird sitting on my shoulder has been uttering the phrase: "the wider the rubber band is stretched, the harder the snap back!"
Now, I'm not going out on a limb and declaring that the bottom for stocks is in and we rally from here. But I do like the odds of a viscous snap back rally materializing at some point this week. And if something like that were to come to pass, I want to be in names that have held up the best in this tape.
In the All Star Charts recent Monthly Charts Strategy Session, JC highlighted a bunch of stocks that have held levels that feel significant.
And since we've seen a lot of damage to bullish charts in recent weeks, the best bets on the board right now appear in stocks that have held up better than the rest.
One mining stock that held up well after hot money ran for the exits is Newmont Corporation $NEM.
It's no secret the oil and energy sectors have been outperforming in 2022.
Of course, when a trend like that is no secret, it tends to become a crowded trade. And we've seen a taste of the ramifications of that in recent weeks. There were some vicious pullbacks in all the biggest winners about two weeks ago.
Fast forward to today, and the smoke has cleared a bit. Many of these names survived the exits of hot money and are now showing signs of resuming their prior uptrends.
At the top of this list right now is Exxon Mobil $XOM.