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[Options] A New Twist On Our Uncle Warren Trade

June 10, 2024

In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.

We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."

But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.

If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Buying Cheap Volatility on Ebay

June 7, 2024

It's been a minute since I've bought anything on eBay. But, by the look of the chart, I must be the outlier as it appears there is still good business there and market participants appear to agree.

Here's what my Analysts had to say about $EBAY in a recent 2 to 100 Club report:

eBay is completing a rounding bottom reversal as it reclaims the 38.2% retracement level. This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, making it a great place to define our risk. If this breakout sticks, the primary trend is higher, and we want to be long against the 53 level.

On a relative basis, the stock is working its way higher out of a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus its peers. If the reversal pattern is completed on absolute terms, we expect the stock to outperform its peers over longer timeframes.

We want to buy EBAY above 53, with a target of 64 over the coming 2-4 months.

Here's a visual of that chart:

 

No, I Will Not Add to This Loser

June 5, 2024

I received a well-meaning question from one of our clients today regarding an open position.

This client missed getting into the trade a couple of months ago.

Paraphrasing her question, she asked, “Since the stock is still above your stop loss level, would it make sense to buy the dip here, and/or would you add to your position here?”

Again, it's a well-meaning question – one I’m sure we all often wrestle with.

The problem, however, is that the position isn’t acting well. It’s a longer-term trade for us and still has a ways to go until options expiration, but the stock is currently trading well below the level at which we first got in.

In the chart below, you can see where we entered at the purple circle:

[Options] The Other Side of the Coin

June 3, 2024

[Note: We entered this trade on June 4th following the entry trigger. Details below]

On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza brought the heat.

It appears Bitcoin is about to start another leg higher. It's showing all the signs: A tightening consolidation on the verge of an upside resolution. And with the 100,000 level on the watch list of every professional and amateur market speculator, it's hard to believe that the next bullish breakout does not include a run to and through this highly watched level.

In the meantime, we equities options traders still have limited vehicle choices available to us to participate in this move. We've long used Microstrategy $MSTR as a Bitcoin proxy. But our feeling is that if Bitcoin makes the move everyone is waiting for, we will see the entire crypto space go with it, and that will be great news for a stock like Coinbase $COIN.

Here's where the charts of Bitcoin and $COIN stand now:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] This Trade Fits the Bill

May 31, 2024

As I mentioned in yesterday's Options Jam Session, the stock market is currently sending mixed signals and it has me open to the idea of adding some short exposure to my portfolio to balance the risks to my open long positions.

So I'm on the hunt for weak stocks that are showing signs of losing significant support levels.

Today's trade fits the bill.

Brian Lund Has to Write

May 30, 2024

If there's one thing Brian Lund learned about himself over the past 30 years in the markets, he must write. Without a doubt, without even thinking about it, he knows that to express himself and to complete his thoughts into productive trading, he needs to sit down and start writing.

And this makes sense. We hear this a lot from our smart friends.

Barry Ritholtz once wrote: "I write to find out what I'm thinking."

In this conversation with Brian, we get into the importance of sleep hygiene and how it's so important for us to be at our best. Not just in trading, but in living.

We dig into challenges Brian has overcome along the way, including an ADHD diagnosis, and morphing from an always-on entrepreneur who constants has problems to solve to a trader who must sit on his hands and wait for things to happen.

We also cover his hacks like therapy, meditation, and a CPAP machine to help him maintain his sharpness.

Like all of us, Brian has suffered from the market honing in on his biggest weaknesses. He's got the battle scars to prove it. But learning from these mistakes and fighting the urge to revenge trade have been evolutions that...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] If The Semis Rally Continues, AMD Rides.

May 30, 2024

If the way Nvidia is trading is an indication that the semiconductors run is far from over, then we have to believe some additional names down the cap scale will attempt to play catchup.

One of those names is Advanced Micro Devices.

Check out the ground that $AMD has to cover to get back to all-time highs:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Just Do It

May 29, 2024

My portfolio could benefit from some directional diversification right now. As such, I had my eye on a bearish bet this morning to help balance out my mostly directionally long exposure.

And one name that I and our analysts discussed in our meeting yesterday appears to be hanging on the precipice of a potentially large fall. The company will be announcing earnings on July 4th (who does that?) and I think that might be the final nail in the coffin to send this stock lower (if not sooner).