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On The Cusp

May 9, 2024

In today’s Options Jam Session, I revealed my itchy feeling that stocks are on the cusp of “popping” higher. Looking at charts of $SPY and $QQQ and $WFC has me thinking that there’s a pile of tinder just waiting for a spark to ignite.

What will be the trigger that gets this wildfire in motion? I don’t know.

But I’m positioned for it with a good variety of sector, time frame, geographical, and time frame exposure.

Click through to see me review many of our open positions that are likely just getting a head start on the coming breakout…

Why Does Short Interest Matter?

May 8, 2024

An All Star Options member recently asked me to explain what “short interest” meant.

This is a hot topic at the moment because there have been a few setups I’ve entered trades into recently, precisely because short interest levels are high.

So what is “short interest”?

According to chatGPT:

Short interest refers to the total number of shares of a particular stock that have been sold short by investors but have not yet been covered or closed out. When investors sell short, they borrow shares of a stock from a broker and sell them with the expectation that the stock's price will decrease. They then plan to buy back the shares at a lower price, return them to the broker, and pocket the difference as profit.

Short interest is typically expressed as a percentage of the total number of shares outstanding for a given stock. It is an important metric for traders and investors because it can provide insight into market sentiment. High short...

[Options] I Buy New All Time Highs

May 7, 2024

No setup gets me more excited than buying a fresh new all-time high.

There are no bagholders looking to unload their losing position to breakeven. Every investor or trader holding a long position is making money. And every trader holding a short position is losing money and the only way they correct that sad state of affairs is to buy stock to stop their losses.

In other words, blue skies above.

This doesn't guarantee success on a long trade here, of course. But these are the types of trades that commonly lead to my biggest gains.

Here's a weekly chart of semiconductor name Analog Devices $ADI:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Boarding a Rocket

May 6, 2024

Today's trade is in a name that currently sports a 15% short interest which equates to approximately 7 days to cover. This could be significant fuel for a blast off if the current post-earnings momentum propels this stock above 52-week highs.

The countdown to launch is ticking, so lets get involved.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Tesla Might Be Recharging

May 3, 2024

There's been a lot of "bad" news thrown in Tesla's direction this year. And it's played out in the stock's price. But here's the thing -- bad news is often the worst at the bottom.

And zooming out on a longer time frame, it looks like $TSLA shares may be beginning to turn the corner.

A Teachable Moment

May 2, 2024

The dramatic decrease in volatility ($VIX is a good proxy for this) across the board over the past ten or so trading days is taking the starch out of my inclination for looking at delta-neutral options credit spreads. It’s getting harder to find good candidates. They are still out there, but I need to be more selective.

That said, I am open to getting long select names here. But the types of setups we’re more likely to find are ones where stocks come off nicely formed bases, rather than breaking out through key levels of resistance or all-time highs.

It doesn’t mean these setups are any more or less likely to work, it just requires a different mindset and tools.

Luckily the options market gives us a lot of tools.

I discuss this in today’s Options Jam Session, as well as a teachable lesson in a trade that got away from us:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Gold Hold

May 1, 2024

I'm mindful that coming into this afternoon's Fed meeting lots can change following whatever is said after 2pm ET.

That said, there's a pretty compelling opportunity to sell some premium in the gold space, at strikes that are comfortably far away, increasing our odds of success.

Look Up!

April 30, 2024

My family and I recently embarked on a memorable 4-day journey to Redwoods National & State Parks in the breathtakingly rugged landscape of extreme Northern California.

Words alone cannot do justice to the majesty of this region, nor can mere photographs fully encapsulate its grandeur. To truly grasp its magnificence, one must stand amidst the towering coastal redwood trees, with the rugged shoreline of Northern California stretching out before them, enveloped in the sights, sounds, and scents of one of the most remarkable forests on Earth.

Even the gentle rain that occasionally graced our adventure served to enhance rather than dampen our experience, intensifying the assault on our senses in the most fulfilling manner imaginable.

As we spent hours traversing the labyrinthine trails, venturing deep into the heart of the woods, a recurring reminder echoed among us: "Don't forget to look up!"

Often, we found ourselves engrossed in the intricate dance of navigating the...

[Options] Year of the Bull in Chinese Tech?

April 29, 2024

In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza laid out the case of how both the Nasdaq 100 and Chinese tech stocks (particularly Chinese internet) might be signaling an important rise in speculative appetite which could fuel the next bull run.

Of the names Steve shared, the one that made the most sense to me was JD.com $JD. Check out this chart:

We're looking at the past year in $JD and it feels to us that if this motor gets running, we could target the low 40's with a good thrust which would be new 52-week highs.

Knowing that we might come into some overhead supply at those levels which could check the rise, and also knowing that upside call options are currently sporting some rich premiums, we're going to put both of these observations to our advantage by utilizing a bull call spread.

Here's the Play:

My Squad is Delicious

April 23, 2024

These cookies were made by a member of my Trader’s Meetup group. She brought them to our gathering last night and made plenty to share with everyone.

Where else can one bring cookies with Japanese candlesticks and receive a rousing ovation from all in attendance?

This is how you know you’re with your people.

Eventually, our spouses get tired of hearing about our “failed breakouts” and “doji reversals.” Our non-trading friends look sideways at us for...

[Options] Straight Gamblin'

April 22, 2024

I came into today's Flow Show not having much of an appetite for any aggressively bullish bets. But by the show's end, I'm putting on a straight gamble! How the hell did that happen? Watch the video above to find out.

The chart and setup that piqued my interest is this one in Riot Platforms $RIOT:

Now that the Bitcoin "halving" is out of the way, will the prior RIOT/Bitcoin correlation that was strong until the last three-ish months reassert itself?

And if it does, will $RIOT catch up to Bitcoin? Or will Bitcoin catch down to $RIOT?

Judging by the basing action we've witnessed in Bitcoin in recent weeks, I think the next big move is higher. And if $RIOT "catches up"? It could be a monster winner in a hurry.

Bonus kicker: Riot Platforms announces earnings on May 8th. That could be the big push we need.

Here's the Play:

[Options] Pruning the Garden

April 18, 2024

Whoa! What a week for pruning the garden!

I closed out eleven positions in five trading days. Unfortunately, many of them were losers. But the good news is all the losers were small (less than 1% of my portfolio capital each). Losers are never fun. But when they’re small, we will survive to trade again.

And the better news is that some of the exits this week represent the harvesting of large open profits. The size of the wins, while fewer in number, more than offset the sting of the losses.

When I’m doing it right, that’s how it’s supposed to work!

Check out my thoughts on the current market environment and the action among open trades in All Star Options in today’s Jam Session: